有色日报：镍弱势运行-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, Shanghai copper showed a weak performance, with little change in open interest and a decrease in amplitude. The domestic commodity market cooled, putting pressure on the non - ferrous sector. The speech of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22 at 22:00 Beijing time is crucial. A dovish stance may be positive for copper prices [5]. - Shanghai aluminum reached the bottom and then rebounded this week, with open interest decreasing during price drops and increasing during price rises. The domestic commodity market cooled, but aluminum prices were stronger than the sector. On Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods continued to decline slowly. With a cooling macro - atmosphere and stronger industrial support, the futures price is expected to be strong [6]. - This week, nickel prices showed a trend of increasing open interest and falling prices, with the main futures price breaking below the 120,000 - yuan mark. The domestic commodity market cooled, and nickel prices were significantly weaker than the sector. High inventories of domestic nickel ore and nickel maintained a weak fundamental situation. With strong downward momentum, nickel prices are expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: This week, the supply - demand weakness in Shandong continued, with stable spot premiums and discounts and low market activity. Downstream demand remained in the off - season, and zero - order purchasing willingness was weak. Holders increased sales to Jiangsu. With no inventory pressure, holders had no intention to cut prices significantly, resulting in a stalemate in spot premiums and discounts [9]. - Aluminum: On August 21, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 101,900 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons from last week [10]. - Nickel: On August 22, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel in the Shanghai market was 121,950 - 122,050 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton; the price of Russian nickel was 119,750 - 119,950 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton; the price of nickel beans was 121,850 - 121,950 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][21]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][31][34]. - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][45].