美联储主席换选：3个关键问题

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, the procedures and rules of the Chairmanship change, and the potential impacts if the Fed's independence is weakened. Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent are considering new candidates, which has raised concerns about the "independence" of monetary policy [1][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Candidates and Their Backgrounds - Three main contenders: Waller, Hassett, and Warsh are the leading candidates. As of August 21, according to Polymarket, Waller has a 32.0% probability of being nominated, followed by Warsh (10.7%) and Hassett (10.0%). According to Kalshi, Waller has a 29% chance, Hassett 19%, and Warsh 18% [2][10]. - Christopher Waller: A current Fed governor and a dove. He is familiar with the Fed's operations, was appointed by Trump, and his policy views align with the White House. His election may raise questions about the central bank's independence [16]. - Kevin Hassett: The current director of the White House National Economic Council. He has rich government experience but relatively less monetary policy experience and is considered too close to the government [17][18]. - Kevin Warsh: A former Fed governor, regarded as a dove, and supports Trump's call for rate cuts. He has extensive experience in various fields but lacks direct access to Trump [21][22]. - Other candidates and potential "dark horse": Other candidates include current Fed officials, financial institution professionals, former Fed officials, and former government economists. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. Milan, recently nominated as a Fed governor, may be a "dark horse." He advocates for reciprocal tariffs, has a dovish stance on interest rates, and wants to weaken the Fed's independence, which has raised concerns about his impact on the central bank's credibility [24][27]. 3.2 Procedures and Rules for the Fed Chairmanship Change The President usually announces the nominee 3 - 6 months in advance, with an average of 4.08 months from nomination to inauguration. Trump is expected to announce the nominee between December this year and January next year. If announced earlier, it may raise concerns about setting up a "shadow Fed." After Powell steps down as Chair, he is likely to resign as a governor. Trump can influence the Fed's policy by nominating new governors, but most current governors' terms extend beyond 2028, making it difficult for him to interfere [29][31]. 3.3 Potential Impacts of Weakened Fed Independence - Increased stagflation risk: Historical precedents show that when the Fed loses independence, stagflation can occur. If Trump appoints a closely - affiliated Fed Chair, the market may worry about repeating the 1973 - 1974 stagflation scenario [34]. - Intensified fiscal concerns: The Fed losing independence may turn it into a tool for the Treasury to issue debt, exacerbating concerns about the debt crisis given the high deficit and rising debt in the US [36]. - Weakened US dollar status and capital flight: The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency depends on the Fed's credibility. If the Fed is seen as politically controlled, investors may shift from dollar - denominated assets to alternatives like gold, leading to a vicious cycle [38]. - US stock, bond, and currency sell - off: A "black swan" event where the Fed is controlled by the White House could lead to a sell - off in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar, as demonstrated by the market reaction in July when there were rumors of firing Powell [38].