乐观情绪降温，煤焦震荡运行

Report Core View - The market sentiment has turned less optimistic, and the coal and coke markets are moving in a volatile manner. For coke, the total daily output of sample coking plants and steel mills reached 112,180 tons, with a slight weekly increase of 70 tons. The total daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 240,750 tons, a marginal weekly increase of 90 tons. The total inventory was 8,885,800 tons, a slight weekly increase of 11,600 tons, and 849,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The futures market has entered the verification stage, and the coke futures are consolidating at a high level. In the long - term, coke may be more likely to rise than fall. For coking coal, this week's supply did not shrink further. The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77,100 tons, a weekly increase of 700 tons, and 2,400 tons lower than the same period last year. The daily output of raw coal was 191,200 tons, a weekly increase of 3,300 tons, and 13,800 tons lower than the same period last year. The Mongolian coal customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port increased by 81.8% year - on - year. The coking coal futures are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [5][6]. Industry Information - The Central Meteorological Observatory has issued dual warnings, with heavy rain and torrential rain expected in many areas from August 22 to 23 [8]. - The price of coking coal in the Pingdingshan market remained stable on August 22, with the price of prime coking coal at 1,460 yuan/ton and 1/3 coking coal at 1,340 yuan/ton, both ex - works prices including VAT [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, FOB) | 1,520 | +3.40% | +7.04% | - 10.06% | - 12.64% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,470 | - 0.68% | +5.00% | - 9.26% | - 14.04% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,190 | 0.00% | +3.48% | +0.85% | - 15.60% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian origin) | 1,530 | - 1.92% | +2.68% | +2.68% | - 12.07% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi origin) | 1,630 | 0.00% | - 1.21% | +6.54% | - 4.12% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,678.5 | - 0.03 | 1,679.5 | 1,651.5 | 21,572 | - 637 | 38,291 | 39 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,162.0 | - 0.17 | 1,164.0 | 1,127.5 | 1,324,473 | - 39,551 | 700,688 | 1,340 | [13] Future Outlook - For coke, the production and inventory data are similar to the core view. The futures market is in the verification stage, and there may be favorable policies in the cost - side in the future, showing a long - term characteristic of being more likely to rise than fall [33]. - For coking coal, the supply, import, and demand data are consistent with the core view. After the "anti - involution" theme fermentation, the market has entered the verification stage. Due to factors such as short - term supply increase, exchange risk control, and downstream production restrictions, the coking coal futures are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [34].