Group 1: Report Highlights - The domestic urea market rose this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,730 - 1,770 yuan/ton, with the average price up 45 yuan/ton week-on-week [6]. - The daily output of domestic urea increased slightly due to the restart of some devices. Next week, 4 enterprises are planned to stop production and 1 is expected to resume, with a higher probability of reduced output considering short - term malfunctions [6]. - Domestic agricultural demand is in the seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. Industrial compound fertilizer has phased replenishment, but its capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly, reducing the rigid demand for urea [6]. - Although some urea enterprises' inventories decreased due to export orders and maintenance, the overall enterprise inventory is still on the rise. Short - term export news is beneficial for inventory reduction, but the decline may be limited [6]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan in the short term [6]. Group 2: Futures Market Futures Price - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 0.12% [9]. Inter - Delivery Spread - As of August 22, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 24 [12]. Futures Warehouse Receipt - As of August 15, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, an increase of 200 compared to last week [21]. Group 3: Spot Market Domestic Spot Price - As of August 21, the mainstream price of urea in Shandong was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was also 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [26]. Foreign Spot Price - As of August 21, the FOB price of Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. Basis - As of August 21, the urea basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. Group 4: Upstream Situation - As of August 20, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [37]. - As of August 21, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.81 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [37]. Group 5: Industry Situation Capacity Utilization and Output - As of August 21, China's urea production was 136.11 tons, up 1.25 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.93%; the capacity utilization rate was 83.99%, up 0.77% from the previous period [40]. Inventory - As of August 21, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 50.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.7 tons, a rise of 7.97% [43]. - As of August 20, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 102.39 tons, an increase of 6.65 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.95% [43]. Export - In June 2025, urea exports were 66,240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,618.13%; the average export price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4,662.05% [46]. Group 6: Downstream Situation - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84%, down 2.64 percentage points from the previous period and expected to decline slightly next week [49]. - As of August 21, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 46.60%, down 3.22 percentage points from last week [49].
瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250822