Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-22 09:31Report Information - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report - Cotton Fluctuates, Awaits Demand Improvement [2] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] - Researcher Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification Number F03109641, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Z0018457 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 closed lower with a weekly decline of about 0.64%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract fell 0.62% [7][20] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. Although inland textile enterprises have no profit, there are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth [7] - In general, tight supply of old crops and expected demand improvement are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the expected increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and control risks [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract both declined this week [7][20] - Market Outlook: Tight supply of old crops, expected demand improvement, new crop growth affected by weather. Short - term trend positive, medium - term suppressed by new crop increase [7] - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the December US cotton contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 0.19%. As of August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.66% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions increased by 1.04% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 8.35% month - on - month [10] - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: The US current market - year cotton export sales increased by 105,400 bales, and shipments were 123,300 bales. New sales were 138,800 bales, lower than last week. As of August 18, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 79.15 cents per pound, down 0.31% month - on - month [15] - Futures Market: Zhengzhou cotton main 2601 contract and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 48,516, and in cotton yarn futures was - 380 lots. Cotton futures warehouse receipts were 7,198 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 64 lots [20][26][33] - Futures and Spot Price Difference: The price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,457 yuan/ton [35] - Spot Market: As of August 22, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,243 yuan/ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,700 yuan/ton. As of August 19, 2025, CY index:OEC10s was 14,800 yuan/ton [41][52] - Futures Basis: The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,213 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract was 640 yuan/ton [47] - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of August 19, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of imported cotton increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price increased by 0.20% month - on - month. The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn C32S, C21S, and JC32S all declined slightly [59] - Imported Cotton Cost - Profit: As of August 19, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 894 yuan/ton, and that of 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,650 yuan/ton [63] 3. Industry Situation - Supply Side - Commercial Inventory: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [67] - Supply Side - Import Volume: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, the imported cotton yarn volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn volume was 780,000 tons [71] - Mid - end Industry - Demand Side: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [75] - Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Export: As of July 31, 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month, and the export value of clothing and accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [79] - Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Retail: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 534.13 billion yuan, up 20.42% month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.5%, down 3.85% month - on - month [83] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - Options Market: Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [84] - Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Agriculture Development Co., Ltd.: P/E ratio trend [89]