Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a weak and volatile trend as the previous positive factors are digested and domestic tire inventory rises and export growth slows [4] - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a volatile consolidation trend. Although methanol has seen an oversold rebound after the previous negative factors were digested, the current supply - demand structure remains weak [4] - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a stable and volatile trend as the previous negative factors are digested and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut rises [5] Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.31 million tons or 0.50% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory increased by 2.12%, while general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inbound and outbound rates of bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [8] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [8] - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9] - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9] Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons [10] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10] - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures contract profit was - 172 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10] - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the inland methanol inventory was 310,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 99,700 tons [11] Crude Oil - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 412, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels per day [11] - As of the week of August 15, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.47 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 96.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12] - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 116,742 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts or 36.27% from the July average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts or 9.20% from the July average [13] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Futures Main Contract | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | 15,625 yuan/ton | - 825 yuan/ton | - 175 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,335 yuan/ton | 2,405 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | + 15 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 464.2 yuan/barrel | 493.6 yuan/barrel | - 29.4 yuan/barrel | + 4.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]
橡胶甲醇原油：多空因素博弈，能化涨跌互现
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-08-22 09:35