Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-22 09:48Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed oil, it is recommended to be mainly bullish. The AAFC estimates Canada's rapeseed production in 2025/26 to be 20.1 million tons, with a doubled carry - over stock of 2.2 million tons. China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may impact exports. There are supply risks in Indonesia and strong palm oil export data from Malaysia. In the short - term, the domestic vegetable oil supply is ample, but the low mill operation rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in Q3 reduce supply pressure. The anti - dumping measures further weaken long - term supply [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The US Department of Agriculture's downward adjustment of US soybean harvest area is bullish, but the good soybean condition restricts prices. Domestically, the high mill operation rate and increasing soybean meal inventory suppress prices, but the uncertainty of Q4 purchases and less near - month rapeseed arrivals support the market. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also weaken long - term supply, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations [11][12]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate with a bullish bias [8]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed higher with the 01 contract closing at 9,890 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - Outlook: AAFC's new production and inventory estimates, China's anti - dumping measures, international palm oil factors, and domestic supply - demand conditions affect the market. The price has a slight pull - back and is now in a narrow - range oscillation [9]. - Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Adopt a bullish mindset and monitor Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations [11]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely with the 01 contract closing at 2,543 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week [12]. - Outlook: USDA's report, good US soybean condition, domestic soybean meal inventory, rapeseed supply, and substitution effect of soybean meal all influence the market. The market is mainly trading long - term supply issues and is in a bullish and volatile state [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Position and Price - Rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 284,285 lots, down 12,211 lots from last week. The top 20 net position changed from net short to net long (+6,463) [17][23]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely with a total position of 421,028 lots, down 27,582 lots from last week. The top 20 net short position decreased (- 8,755) [17][23]. - Warehouse Receipts - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts are 3,487 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts are 8,253 lots [29][30]. - Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,010 yuan/ton, up from last week, and the basis is +120 yuan/ton [37]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,550 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week, and the basis is +7 yuan/ton [43]. - Futures Month - to - Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is +179 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is +74 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50]. - Futures - Spot Ratio - The 01 contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.889, and the average spot price ratio is 3.81 [53]. - Price Spread between Oils and Meals - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil to soybean oil is 1,432 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil to palm oil is 298 yuan/ton, both with relative oscillations this week [62]. - The 01 contract spread of soybean meal to rapeseed meal is 545 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 460 yuan/ton [68]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Rapeseed - Supply - Inventory and Arrival: As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in mills is 150,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August, September, and October 2025 are 200,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 150,000 tons respectively [74]. - Supply - Pressing Profit: As of August 21, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is +883 yuan/ton [78]. - Supply - Pressing Volume: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume in coastal main mills is 49,000 tons, down 13,000 tons from last week, with an operation rate of 11.99% [82]. - Supply - Monthly Arrival: In July 2025, China's rapeseed imports are 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [86]. - Rapeseed Oil - Supply - Inventory and Import: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory is 744,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. In July 2025, rapeseed oil imports are 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% [90]. - Demand - Consumption and Production: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.769 million tons, and the catering revenue is 470.76 billion yuan [94]. - Demand - Contract Volume: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil contract volume is 101,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.39% [98]. - Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Inventory: As of the 33rd week of 2025, the domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory is 26,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.39% [102]. - Supply - Import: In July 2025, rapeseed meal imports are 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [106]. - Demand - Feed Production: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly feed output is 2.9377 million tons [110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of August 22, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.7%, down 3.03% from last week, at a slightly medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113].