鸡蛋市场周报：现货价格偏弱调整，近月期价继续走低-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market continued to decline this week. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Currently, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The continuous release of cold - storage eggs further increases the supply pressure [8]. - Terminal demand is weak. High - temperature weather makes the market cautious, and demand is sluggish. To reduce inventory, breeding enterprises are more willing to sell at low prices, causing the spot market price to continuously fall short of expectations, and the breeding end has been in a loss state [8]. - With the start of school - opening stockpiling and the Mid - Autumn Festival procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. However, due to weak spot prices and high - production capacity pressure, the futures price generally maintains a weak trend [8]. - The strategy recommendation is to participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: The egg price continued to decline this week. The 2510 contract closed at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 149 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - Supply Situation: High laying - hen inventory, large pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and continuous release of cold - storage eggs increase supply pressure [8]. - Demand Situation: Terminal demand is weak, and high - temperature weather makes the market cautious. However, demand is expected to improve with school - opening stockpiling and Mid - Autumn Festival procurement [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: Participate in a bearish manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: The 10 - contract of egg futures continued to decline, with a position of 434,281 lots, an increase of 118,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 42,652, and the net short position increased compared to last week [14]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 3 [18]. - Spot Price and Basis: The egg spot price was 3057 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 9 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 24 yuan per ton [24]. - Futures Inter - Month Spread: The 10 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 218 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related Commodity Spot Prices: As of August 21, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.03 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.89 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply - Side Indicators: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%, and the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [40]. - Laying - Hen Elimination Indicators: As of July 31, 2025, the national elimination - laying - hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%, and the national elimination - hen age was 512 days [44]. - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of August 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2373.53 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3000 yuan per ton [48]. - Feed Price and Breeding Profit: As of August 15, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.26 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [55]. - Laying - Hen Chick and Elimination - Hen Prices: As of August 15, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination hens was 10.94 yuan per kilogram [60]. - Egg Monthly Export Volume: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared to the previous month [65].