Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-22 09:42Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium Market Weekly Report: Supply Slightly Increases, Demand Improves, Lithium Prices May Find Support" [2] - Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Chen Sijia - Core Viewpoint: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain largely unchanged, with both supply and demand increasing. Although inventory is still high, it is being depleted. The report suggests a light - position, short - term long strategy when prices are low, while controlling risks [5] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Market - The closing price of the carbonate lithium main contract was 78,960 yuan/ton as of August 22, 2025, a weekly decrease of 7,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of - 9.14% and an amplitude of 13.81%. The near - far month spread was 220 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton [5][11] Spot Market - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 83,900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,200 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 4,940 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 9,140 yuan/ton [17] Group 3: Upstream Market Lithium Concentrate - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 970 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 86 US dollars/ton. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1778, a weekly increase of 0.07% [21] Lithium Mica - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,825 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 615 yuan/ton [26] Group 4: Industry Supply and Demand Supply - As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of carbonate lithium was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decline of 21.77% and a year - on - year decline of 42.67%. The monthly export volume was 366.347 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons from June, a decline of 14.74% and a year - on - year increase of 37.2%. The monthly output was 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from June, an increase of 1.13% and a year - on - year increase of 14.36%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a monthly decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31] Demand - Electrolyte and Related Materials: As of July 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 44.16%. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8,000 yuan/ton [34] - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 213,960 tons, an increase of 10,660 tons from June, an increase of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6%. The operating rate was 51%, a monthly decrease of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [39] - Ternary Materials: As of July 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 61,920 tons, an increase of 2,920 tons from June, an increase of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 24.09%. The operating rate was 52%, a monthly increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The prices of mainstream ternary materials continued to strengthen [42] - Lithium Manganate: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,120 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from June, a decline of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 11.21%. The average price of lithium manganate was 34,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton [47] - Lithium Cobaltate: As of July 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 12,870 tons, an increase of 470 tons from June, an increase of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 71.14%. The average price of lithium cobaltate was 235,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton [50] Application End - New Energy Vehicles - As of July 2025, the monthly production of new - energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a monthly decrease of 1.97%; the monthly sales were 1,262,000 units, a monthly decrease of 5.04%. The penetration rate was 44.99%, a monthly increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million units, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [52][57] Group 5: Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.13, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [60]