南华原油市场日报：油价反弹修复，但缺乏实质性利好支撑-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The crude oil market continues its short - term rebound, consolidating the sideways oscillation pattern since July. The center of gravity has slightly shifted upwards due to the slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation, the peak seasonal demand, and the technical support from the position adjustment during the roll - over period. However, the macro - sentiment is negative, and there is no new driving factor. After late August, demand will decline seasonally, and even if OPEC+ suspends production increase in October, the supply - demand imbalance will put downward pressure on oil prices. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have also decreased. Overall, the recent rebound lacks substantial positive support, with limited upside potential, and the future logic is neutral to bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Multi - Short Analysis - Bullish Driving Factors (Short - term Support) - Geopolitical situation sentiment repair: Slow progress in the Russia - Ukraine issue weakens the expectation of a "rapid cooling" of the situation, leading to an emotional repair of the geopolitical risk premium in the crude oil market [4]. - Peak demand season not over: The current peak seasonal demand provides fundamental support for the market and delays price decline [4]. - Technical support from roll - over: At the end of August, the roll - over period of near - month contracts of WTI and Brent crude oil, with "near - month short - position reduction + far - month long - position increase", drives the short - term rebound [4]. - OPEC+ short - term policy expectation: The market generally expects OPEC+ to decide to suspend production increase in October at its September 7th meeting, which may boost market sentiment in the short term [4]. - Bearish Driving Factors (Medium - to Long - term Dominant) - Approaching seasonal demand decline: After late August, the end of the US summer travel season and refinery autumn maintenance will lead to a decrease in crude oil processing volume and a seasonal decline in gasoline demand until February - March next year, causing the disappearance of demand - side support [5]. - Rising risk of supply - demand imbalance: Even if OPEC+ suspends production increase, the current high production quota, combined with the seasonal demand decline, will likely lead to an oversupply in the fourth - quarter crude oil market [5]. - Negative macro - sentiment: The increase in the VIX and the correction of the US stock market may suppress the demand for crude oil as a risk asset. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in September has dropped to 75%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts by the end of the year has been reduced from 3 to 2, weakening the expectation of loose liquidity [6]. - Failure to reflect fundamental bearishness: The current crude oil price is still dominated by short - term events and has not priced in the fundamental bearishness of the "fourth - quarter oversupply", and downward pressure will be released once the market focuses on fundamentals [6]. 3.2. Market Dynamics - EIA report: As of the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.41% decline, far exceeding the market expectation. US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a 3.34% increase year - on - year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [7]. - Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has instructed to start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war under acceptable conditions [7]. - Singapore: As of the week ending August 20, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.035 million barrels, an eight - week low [7]. - Guyana: Guyana's oil production in July remained almost unchanged at 664,000 barrels per day [7]. - India: India will continue to buy Russian oil despite US pressure. The foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow on August 21 [7]. 3.3. Global Crude Oil Disk Price and Spread Changes The report provides the prices and spreads of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on August 22, 21, and 15, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes, as well as changes in spreads such as EFS spread, monthly spreads [8].