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焦炭市场周报:原料限仓跟随回落,六轮提涨企业盈利-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation includes ongoing flood - prevention, geopolitical tensions, and hawkish signals from the Fed. Supply - demand shows high iron - water production and increased coking coal inventory. Technically, the coking coal main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The coking coal main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to market sentiment decline caused by exchange position limits [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - Macro Aspect: The flood - prevention situation remains severe, and there may be typhoons by the end of August. In July, China's rebar production was 1.5182 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative production from January to July was 11.3387 million tons, also a 2.3% year - on - year decrease. Overseas, there are geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals [7]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: The current iron - water production is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The coking coal inventory has shifted downstream, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Due to the exchange's second position limit in a month, market sentiment has declined, and the futures price is expected to weaken in the short term. The coking coal main contract should be treated as a fluctuating operation [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Situation - Futures Market: As of August 22, the contract position decreased by 3,482 lots compared to the previous period, and the coke monthly spread decreased by 25 points. The number of registered coke warrants remained unchanged, and the futures ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.01 points [9][11][18]. - Spot Market: As of August 21, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, and the ex - factory price of coking coal in Inner Mongolia Wuhai also remained unchanged. As of August 22, the coke basis increased by 43 points to - 184 yuan/ton. In July, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, it was 2.78 billion tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal production was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Upstream: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.17%, an increase of 0.04%. The daily coke output is 523,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons. The coke inventory is 394,700 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory is 8.2394 million tons, a decrease of 54,700 tons. The available days of coking coal are 11.8 days, a decrease of 0.09 days [32][34]. - Downstream: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 2.4075 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 15, the total coke inventory decreased by 196,700 tons to 8.5733 million tons, a 13.28% year - on - year increase. The port coke inventory decreased, and the steel mill coke inventory also decreased [36][38][42]. - Fundamentals: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 15.58% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a 21.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, the housing price index of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 17, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.2773 million square meters, a 1.32% month - on - month decrease and a 12.33% year - on - year decrease. The commercial housing transaction area of first - tier cities increased by 8.00% month - on - month, and that of second - tier cities decreased by 14.70% month - on - month [44][46][49]