瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures rose 4.95% with a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the glass futures fell 3.14% showing an overall downward trend [6]. - For soda ash, the domestic production rate and output increased this week. Although the profit margin slightly rebounded, the maintenance was still lower than expected. The profit rebound is not sustainable, and the overall output is expected to decline. The market supply is currently loose, and the market will likely follow the guidance of the anti - involution meeting, with the natural soda ash method gradually replacing backward production capacity. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the demand for soda ash from the glass industry is at a low level. The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased due to insufficient demand, and the de - stocking process will be repeated. Overall, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, the demand will continue to decline, and the price will be under pressure, but there may be variables with anti - involution speculation [6]. - For glass, the cold - repair number of production lines remained unchanged, and the output is at a low level. The profit is starting to decline due to the impact of high - temperature weather on real - estate construction demand. The current real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the downstream deep - processing orders have slightly increased, with procurement mainly for rigid demand. The overall inventory has started to rise slightly, but the de - stocking trend remains. A restocking market is expected to start next week. The marginal growth of the automobile industry has weakened. If there is news from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, the logic of interest - rate cuts may continue to be traded [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1300 - 1390, with a stop - loss range of 1280 - 1420, and operate the FG2601 contract in the range of 1130 - 1200, with a stop - loss range of 1100 - 1230 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures rose 4.95% with a first - down - then - up trend. In the first half of the week, it was weak due to poor fundamentals, and the spot price drove the futures price down. In the second half, it was affected by the speculation of production - capacity limitation. Glass futures fell 3.14% with an overall downward trend. After switching the main contract in the first half of the week, the price was overestimated and then dropped significantly due to insufficient real - estate demand [6]. - Market Outlook: For soda ash, supply is abundant and demand is falling, and the price will be under pressure but may change with anti - involution speculation. For glass, the supply is at a low level, the real - estate situation is not good, and a restocking market is expected next week [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Trade SA2601 in the 1300 - 1390 range and FG2601 in the 1130 - 1200 range, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Both soda ash and glass futures prices fell this week [8]. - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot price of soda ash decreased, and the basis strengthened, but the rebound was not obvious. The spot price of glass weakened, and the basis strengthened and is expected to continue to do so. The soda ash - glass price spread weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [13][17][21]. - Specific Data: As of August 21, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1207.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the soda ash basis was - 98.5 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was - 88 yuan/ton. As of August 14, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 150 yuan/ton [15][19][23]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Analysis - Production Capacity and Output: The domestic soda ash production rate and output increased this week. As of August 21, 2025, the national soda ash production rate was 88.75%, a 1.62% increase week - on - week, and the national weekly soda ash output was 77.14 tons, a 1.32% increase week - on - week. The cold - repair number of glass production lines remained unchanged, and the output was at a low level [24][28][35]. - Profit Situation: The profit of domestic soda ash enterprises rebounded this week due to cost reduction, while the profit of glass enterprises decreased due to the decline in spot prices. The theoretical profit of China's dual - tonnage soda ash by the joint - alkali process was 18 yuan/ton, a 11 yuan/ton increase week - on - week, and the theoretical cost decreased by 60 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda ash method was - 13 yuan/ton, a 5 yuan/ton increase week - on - week, and the theoretical cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 192.84 yuan/ton, a 12.53% decrease; using coal - gas as fuel was 101.55 yuan/ton, a 10.26% increase; using petroleum coke as fuel was 35.52 yuan/ton, a 59.5% decrease [30][33]. - Inventory Situation: The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises increased due to increased production, and the inventory of glass enterprises increased due to poor real - estate demand. As of August 21, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 191.08 tons, a 0.89% increase week - on - week, and the total glass inventory was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a 0.28% increase week - on - week [46][50]. - Downstream Demand: The deep - processing orders for glass increased slightly, but the demand is still low. As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days [52][54].