Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-22 10:00Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, most prices of the container shipping index (European Line) futures declined. The main contract EC2510 closed down 4.66%, and the far - month contracts declined between 3 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease, and the spot indicator continued to decline [6][46]. - In the context of the lack of significant improvement in demand, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side in the future, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter, but the current economic data of the eurozone is not optimistic overall. With high tariff uncertainty, the market is generally waiting and watching. Freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [7][47]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The prices of the main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) futures declined this week. Specifically, EC2508 rose 2.20%, EC2510 fell 4.66%, EC2512 fell 5.04%, EC2602 fell 4.22%, EC2604 fell 5.25%, and EC2606 fell 3.81%. The SCFIS index fell 2.5% [9]. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined collectively [18]. 2. News Review and Analysis - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate, which is bearish for the market [21]. - The EU and the US reached a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and purchase US energy and AI chips, which is bullish for the market [21]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, which is neutral for the market [21]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is neutral for the market [21]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts converged this week [28]. - The export container freight rate index declined this week [32]. - Container shipping capacity declined in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors [36]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly [40]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices mostly declined this week. Spot indicators continued to decline. Leading shipping companies started a "price war", and the market expected to turn cold. Trump's plan to impose additional tariffs increased uncertainty in global trade. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates and the eurozone's economic situation also had an impact on the market [46]. - Due to over - capacity and high tariff uncertainty, freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information [47].