Report Summary - The report is an asphalt weekly report from AVIC Futures dated August 22, 2025 [2] - The main view is that this week, the asphalt fundamentals continued the characteristics of weak supply and demand. The supply - side weekly output and operating rate decreased, and the demand - side shipment volume decreased slightly. The refinery inventory still showed a slight accumulation, while the social inventory decreased. The crude oil price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the asphalt price is dominated by crude oil fluctuations. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes [6][62] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the range of 3450 - 3600 yuan/ton for the BU2510 contract [6] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include low refinery inventory and marginal macro - improvement [9] - Bearish factors include lower - than - expected demand and insufficient upward drive on the cost side [9] Macroeconomic Analysis - The results of the meetings between the US and Russia, and the US and European countries basically met market expectations, and geopolitical risks weakened. However, the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations still needs to be tracked [10] - The risk of "secondary tariffs" has subsided. Trump said he would not impose secondary tariffs on China for the time being, and India decided to continue buying Russian oil [11] Data Analysis Supply - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 548,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from last week. Some refineries in Shandong switched to producing residual oil, and some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns [12] - As of August 20, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 30.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous statistical period. The operating rates in East China and Shandong decreased significantly [22] Demand - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt weekly shipment volume was 391,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week. The demand weakened due to rainfall [23] - As of August 22, the domestic modified asphalt weekly capacity utilization rate was 16.99%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from last week. Except for Southwest and South China, the capacity utilization rates in other regions remained stable [26] Import and Export - In July, domestic asphalt imports were 380,500 tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 16.53%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 2.1055 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.5% [31] - In July, domestic asphalt exports were 55,700 tons, an increase of 26,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative exports from January to July were 334,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46.45% [36] Inventory - As of August 22, the refinery inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 716,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. The refinery shipments were poor due to the impact of rainfall on demand [46] - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The decrease was due to weak downstream demand and reduced refinery output [53] Spread - As of August 22, the domestic asphalt processing diluted weekly profit was - 474.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.3 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 20, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 54.97, and as of August 21, the asphalt basis was 255 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread remained stable [60]
沥青周度报告-20250822
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-08-22 10:23