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Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the urea industry is bearish [1] Report's Core View - The urea futures market showed a downward trend on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. The fundamentals had no significant fluctuations, and short - term bearish sentiment prevailed due to insufficient domestic demand and high inventory levels [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved lower on August 22, 2025, with a cold trading atmosphere. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The daily output remained around 190,000 tons, with a narrow - range fluctuation. Domestic demand was insufficient, and the inventory of urea factories was at a five - year high, restricting price increases. The participation in the Indian tender was unclear, and the market sentiment was cautious. The short - term outlook was bearish [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1767 yuan/ton, closed at 1739 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.92%. The trading volume was 209,301 lots, an increase of 3584 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 4237 lots, and short positions increased by 4251 lots [2] - Spot: The futures market declined continuously, and the trading atmosphere was cold. Spot prices mostly stabilized, and some regions slightly lowered prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1720 - 1740 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipt Data - On August 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4073, an increase of 500 compared to the previous trading day, with 500 additional receipts from Jilin Yuyuan [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market's mainstream quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [9] - Supply: On August 22, 2025, the national daily urea output was 189,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.81% [11]