中航期货橡胶周度报告-20250822

Report Summary - During the period from August 20th to August 26th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. High precipitation areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in southern Thailand and southwestern Cambodia, affecting rubber tapping. South of the equator, high precipitation areas were in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, also affecting tapping [5]. - This week, the rubber market showed narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic stock market reached new highs, but had limited impact on the commodity market. As the 09 - contract delivery approached, the real - end weight of commodity trading increased. The rubber fundamentals were neutral, with short - term inventory pressure and stable downstream tire开工率 [6]. Market Focus Bullish Factors - Weather disturbances stabilized rubber raw material prices, providing cost support [10]. - The inventory structure of all - steel tire enterprises improved, and their开工率 was good [10]. Bearish Factors - The capacity utilization of semi - steel tire enterprises was limited by inventory [10]. - There was inventory accumulation pressure in some rubber inventories [10]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices - As of August 21st, Thai fresh glue was 54.7 Thai baht/kg, cup rubber was 49.2 Thai baht/kg, Yunnan glue in China was 14,200 yuan/ton, and Hainan glue was 13,200 yuan/ton. Rain in major producing areas boosted prices slightly, supporting rubber costs [11]. Natural Rubber Inventory - As of the week of August 15th, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1,285,363 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,504 tons. Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory increased by 1,598 tons, while Qingdao general trade inventory decreased by 4,719 tons [14]. Butadiene Price - This week, the domestic butadiene price fluctuated in a narrow range. Due to some device maintenance and reduced production, output decreased. Although inventory increased due to ship arrivals, supply pressure was not obvious. As of August 21st, the delivered price in Shandong was 9,400 - 9,450 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 9,100 - 9,200 yuan/ton. As of August 22nd, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 324.8671 yuan/ton [15]. Butadiene Rubber Supply - Demand - As of the week of August 22nd, the in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 250 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 7,410 tons, an increase of 420 tons. High - cis butadiene rubber production was 27,765 tons, an increase of 1,860 tons from last week. The overall supply - demand structure was relatively loose [18]. Tire Enterprise Capacity Utilization - As of the week of August 22nd, the capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. The average inventory - available days were 39.76 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 days and a year - on - year decrease of 3.92 days. For semi - steel tire sample enterprises, the capacity utilization was 71.87%, a week - on - week increase of 2.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81%. The in - factory inventory - available days were 47.05 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 days and a year - on - year increase of 10.57 days [19]. Contract Spreads - As of August 21st, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract remained stable as the delivery month approached, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract fluctuated in a narrow range after the main contract change [21]. Market Outlook - From a macro perspective, the domestic stock market reaching new highs had limited impact on the commodity market, and the real - end weight of commodity trading increased as the 09 - contract delivery approached. - Fundamentally, raw material prices were stable, with rain in major producing areas providing limited price support. Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory increased, and overall social inventory rose. All - steel tire开工率 continued to rise, while semi - steel tire capacity utilization increased slightly with slow inventory reduction. - Overall, the rubber fundamentals were neutral, with short - term inventory pressure and stable downstream tire开工率. Currently, there were no obvious fundamental contradictions, and prices fluctuated within a range [25].