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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and attention should be paid to Powell's speech tonight. The fundamental situation has not changed significantly. Supported by the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", there is support below the copper price, and the market is waiting for new drivers [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong oscillation. The Jackson Hole meeting is ongoing, and Powell's speech tonight may affect the fluctuation of the US dollar index [1]. - On the supply side, Codelco has raised the estimate of accident losses and lowered the 2025 production target. In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of refined copper concentrate has decreased to a five - year low. The TC/RC fees of smelters have continued to stabilize and rise. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price is at a high level in the same period of history, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the refined copper production will not fluctuate significantly. Smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid stockpiling [1]. - On the demand side, downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but the market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still drags down downstream demand, with a 12% year - on - year decline in real estate development investment from January to July and a 4% year - on - year decline in the sales area of newly built commercial housing. However, the power grid and new energy sectors bring demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, reflecting short - term weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a relatively strong oscillation, with the closing price at 78,690 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 futures companies were 105,514 lots, an increase of 1,969 lots; the short positions were 102,779 lots, an increase of 3,416 lots [4]. - Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China was 60 yuan/ton. On August 21, 2025, the LME official price was $9,690/ton, and the spot premium was - $79/ton [4]. Supply - Side Information As of August 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.65/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.76 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 24,100 tons, a decrease of 1,009 tons from the previous period. - As of August 18, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 87,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period. - LME copper inventory was 156,400 tons, unchanged from the previous period. - COMEX copper inventory was 271,700 short tons, an increase of 1,160 short tons from the previous period [8].