原油周度报告-20250822

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices showed a wide - range oscillation, not continuing the previous weak trend, and the price fluctuation range decreased compared with last week. The results of the meetings between the US President and the Russian President, as well as European leaders, met market expectations, reducing concerns about increased supply. The unexpected decline in US EIA crude oil inventories and seasonal improvement in demand supported oil prices. The market's consensus on shale oil cost support strongly supported WTI crude oil around $60 per barrel. After short - term negative factors materialized, geopolitical risks weakened, and the market focused on the crude oil fundamentals. With the unexpected decline in IEA crude oil inventories, strong demand, and cost support, the downside of oil prices was limited, and a technical rebound might occur. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [8][49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Report Abstract - The results of the US - Russia and US - Europe meetings met market expectations, and the Fed's meeting minutes showed increased divergence among the Federal Open Market Committee on the monetary policy path. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. Key data included a 6.014 - million - barrel decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15, a 0.419 - million - barrel increase in EIA Cushing crude oil inventory, and a 0.223 - million - barrel increase in EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory [7]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: EIA crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, and shale oil cost provided support [11]. - Bearish factors: The expectation of the consumption peak season faded, and the relationship between the US and Russia eased [11]. 3. Macro Analysis - US - Russia and US - Europe meetings: The meetings between the US and Russia, as well as the US and Europe, met market expectations, and geopolitical risks weakened. The results were neutral, neither intensifying the situation nor reaching a comprehensive agreement. Continued tracking of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress was needed [12]. - Fed's meeting minutes: The Fed's meeting minutes in July showed increased divergence among Federal Reserve officials. The minutes had limited impact on the market, and the market focused on Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [13]. - "Secondary tariff" risk: The risk of "secondary tariffs" subsided. Trump said he would not impose secondary tariffs on China for now, and India decided to continue buying Russian oil [14]. 4. Data Analysis - Supply: OPEC's production increased month - on - month in July but was still lower than the production increase plan. The daily output increased by 263,000 barrels to 27.54 million barrels. The main contributors to the increase were Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while Iran's production decreased. US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels per day to 13.382 million barrels per day, increasing the supply pressure. The number of US oil rigs increased by 1 [15][17][19]. - Demand: US crude oil consumption demand and gasoline demand increased month - on - month. The US refinery utilization rate remained high, with limited room for further increase. China's state - owned refinery utilization rate might have reached its peak, while the independent refinery utilization rate was in a climbing cycle. The profit of state - owned refineries decreased month - on - month, while that of independent refineries increased slightly [25][26][31]. - Inventory: US EIA crude oil inventory decreased month - on - month, while the strategic petroleum reserve inventory continued to accumulate. The Cushing area's crude oil inventory increased slightly, and the gasoline inventory decreased. It was expected that the gasoline inventory would enter a destocking cycle [41][45]. - Crack spread: The US crude oil crack spread increased month - on - month, reaching a new high this year, indicating the continued recovery of US refined oil consumption [46]. 5.后市研判 - The conclusion was consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the downside of oil prices was limited, and a technical rebound might occur. Attention should be paid to the support of WTI crude oil at $60 per barrel [49].