格林大华期货鸡蛋周报：利空持续兑现，玉米关注低多机会收储再度启动，生猪情绪扰动增强-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: Short - term supply is sufficient, and the spot price is weak and stable. Mid - term, new - season trading drivers are strengthening, and bearish expectations are being realized. Long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution plus planting cost. Focus on low - buying opportunities after verifying the bottom [4][6]. - Pig: Short - term, the pig price fluctuates due to mixed factors. Mid - term, supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Long - term, if policies are implemented, supply pressure may ease after the second quarter of next year, potentially driving up the valuation of contracts in the second half of next year [12][13]. - Egg: Short - term, supply is loose and inventory is rising, with the spot price in a low - level fluctuation. Mid - term, the spot price may rebound during the Mid - Autumn Festival, but the rebound height is not overly optimistic. Long - term, if the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn - Important Information: On the 22nd, the prices at north - south ports and deep - processing enterprises weakened. The import corn auction on the 22nd had a 16%成交 rate. The number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased. The wheat - corn price difference remained inverted. As of the end of the 34th week in 2025, the corn inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [4][5][9]. - Market Logic: Short - term supply is sufficient. Mid - term, new - season factors affect the market, and bearish expectations are being realized. Long - term, the pricing depends on import substitution and planting cost, with policy being a key factor [6]. - Trading Strategy: Current short positions can be closed for profit. Consider long positions after verifying the bottom. Focus on the support effect of 2150 for the 2511 and 2601 contracts [7]. Pig - Important Information: On the 22nd, the national average pig price decreased. The number of fertile sows in June 2025 increased year - on - year. The fat - standard price difference widened. The national pig - grain ratio triggered a third - level warning, and 10,000 tons of frozen pork will be purchased on the 25th [12]. - Market Logic: Short - term, the pig price fluctuates. Mid - term, supply is expected to increase. Long - term, if policies work, supply pressure may ease after the second quarter of next year [13]. - Trading Strategy: Near - month contracts focus on basis repair, and far - month contracts trade on the expected difference in capacity reduction. Verify the support and resistance levels for the 2511 and 2601 contracts [14]. Egg - Important Information: On the 22nd, the egg price weakened, and inventory levels rose. The price of old hens decreased, and the average culling age decreased. The number of laying hens in July increased year - on - year, and is expected to rise in August [19]. - Market Logic: Short - term, supply is loose. Mid - term, the spot price may rebound during the Mid - Autumn Festival, but the height is limited. Long - term, supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [19]. - Trading Strategy: Futures contracts are squeezing premiums. The 2509 contract can be observed after closing short positions for profit, and the 2510 contract maintains a short - selling strategy. Pay attention to the 2512 and 2601 contracts [20].