市场情绪弱稳，钢矿延续震荡

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - Ribbed Bars: The main contract futures price of ribbed bars fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.35%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply - demand on both sides is stable, industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure. However, the increase in cost may limit the downward space. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: The main contract futures price of hot - rolled coils fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.86%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply and demand on both sides are rising, and the demand shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. With the support of cost increase and production restriction disturbances, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - Iron Ore: The main contract futures price of iron ore weakened with a daily decline of 0.71%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. The demand for ore is at a high level with good resilience, which supports the ore price. However, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restriction disturbances are continuous, weakening the positive effects. On the contrary, the supply has returned to a high level, and the fundamentals of ore are weakening. The over - valued ore price will continue to be under pressure and adjust through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3) Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Consumption Market: In July 2025, commodity retail sales increased by 4.0% year - on - year, with the retail sales of above - quota units increasing by 3.1%. From January to July, commodity retail sales increased by 4.9%. The policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones continued to be effective. The retail sales of household appliances, furniture, communication equipment, and cultural and office supplies of above - quota units increased by 28.7%, 20.6%, 14.9%, and 13.8% respectively. In July, passenger car retail sales increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and new - energy passenger car retail sales increased by 12.0% with a penetration rate of 54%. Upgraded products maintained rapid growth [6]. - Mechanical Industry: From January to July, the added values of the five major industries in the mechanical industry increased year - on - year. General equipment manufacturing increased by 8.3%, special equipment manufacturing by 3.8%, automobile manufacturing by 10.9%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 11.9%, and instrument and meter manufacturing by 7.1%. In terms of fixed - asset investment, general equipment manufacturing increased by 14.8%, special equipment manufacturing by 4.6%, automobile manufacturing by 21.7%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing decreased by 8.7%, and instrument and meter manufacturing decreased by 16.3%. The cumulative output of metal - cutting machine tools was 480,000 units, an increase of 13.9% year - on - year; the cumulative output of industrial robots was 447,000 sets, an increase of 32.9% year - on - year; and the cumulative output of solar cells was 47,3960,000 kilowatts, an increase of 19.6% year - on - year [7]. - Iron Ore Joint Venture: The state - owned mining company SNIM of Mauritania and the Saudi Arabian steel company Hadeed will jointly establish a joint venture to develop an iron ore mine in Mauritania with an annual production target of 12 - 14 million tons. The two countries plan to enhance trade through direct transportation routes, and the Islamic Development Bank has allocated $315 million for infrastructure construction [8]. Spot Market - Steel Products: The spot prices of ribbed bars (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280, 3,270, and 3,337 respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, and 5. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,400, 3,360, and 3,459 respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, and 16. The price of Tangshan billets was 3,020 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,120 with no change. The coil - to - ribbed bar price difference was 120 with no change, and the ribbed bar - to - scrap price difference was 1,160, a decrease of 20 [9]. - Iron Ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 767, a decrease of 3; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 8.89, a decrease of 0.29; from Brazil was 23.24, a decrease of 0.49. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.49, an increase of 0.23, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 100.80, an increase of 0.20 [9]. Futures Market - Ribbed Bars: The closing price of the active contract was 3,119 with a decline of 0.35%. The highest price was 3,127, the lowest was 3,106, the trading volume was 801,286 (a decrease of 323,893), and the open interest was 1,411,603 (a decrease of 46,508) [13]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: The closing price of the active contract was 3,361 with a decline of 0.86%. The highest price was 3,374, the lowest was 3,350, the trading volume was 498,652 (a decrease of 73,892), and the open interest was 998,147 (a decrease of 49,335) [13]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the active contract was 770.0 with a decline of 0.71%. The highest price was 774.5, the lowest was 766.0, the trading volume was 227,341 (a decrease of 54,414), and the open interest was 452,625 (an increase of 1,051) [13]. Future Outlook - Ribbed Bars: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, inventory continues to accumulate. The weekly output decreased by 58,000 tons, and the demand is at a low level. Although the cost increase may limit the downward space, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: Both supply and demand are rising. The weekly output increased by 96,500 tons, and the demand shows good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. With the support of cost increase and production restriction disturbances, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - Iron Ore: The demand is at a high level with good resilience, but steel mill profits are shrinking, and production restriction disturbances are continuous. The supply has returned to a high level, and the ore price will continue to be under pressure and adjust through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].