有色金属周度报告-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most non - ferrous metals showed fluctuations this week. For example, the price of lithium carbonate decreased, while that of some other metals like aluminum had mixed trends. The supply and demand situation in the non - ferrous metal market is complex, affected by factors such as production resumption, policy, and downstream consumption [2][45]. - The market sentiment and price trends of different non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors. For instance, the news of Jiangte Motor's lithium salt plant resuming production alleviated the short - term supply shortage panic in the lithium carbonate market, leading to price adjustments [45]. 3. Summarized by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - The prices of most metals showed fluctuations in the week from August 15th to August 22nd. Copper decreased by 0.51% in futures and 0.43% in spot; aluminum decreased by 0.58% in futures but increased by 0.78% in spot; zinc decreased by 1.13% in futures and 1.11% in spot; lead decreased by 0.44% in futures and 0.30% in spot; nickel decreased by 0.96% in futures and 0.78% in spot; alumina decreased by 2.09% in futures and remained unchanged in spot; industrial silicon decreased by 0.68% in futures and 1.04% in spot; lithium carbonate decreased by 9.14% in futures and increased by 4.885% in spot; polysilicon decreased by 2.53% in futures and increased by 4.26% in spot [2]. 3.2 Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - As of August 15th, SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,400 tons (5.37%). As of August 22nd, LME copper inventory was 156,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons. As of August 21st, COMEX copper inventory was 271,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,800 tons (1.80%). After the tariff policy, the inventories in the three exchanges tend to be stable [10][15]. 3.3 Processing Fees of Metal Ores - As of August 21st, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 38.2 dollars/ton, with a slight weekly increase of 0.2 dollars/ton, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists. As of August 15th, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 75 dollars/ton, with a slight weekly increase of 5 dollars/ton [18][23]. 3.4 Lithium - related Market - The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index soared this week. As of August 22nd, the latest quote was 934 dollars/ton, up 157 dollars from August 8th, remaining at a high level this year. This week, lithium carbonate first rose and then declined, with the main 2511 contract having a weekly decline of 9.14%. Jiangte Motor's lithium salt plant resuming production will directly increase domestic lithium carbonate supply, alleviating the short - term supply shortage panic [19][20][45]. 3.5 Aluminum - related Market - For aluminum, the supply of bauxite has less disturbance, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term. The alumina supply has increased production and inventory. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintain a high - level operation, but the available primary aluminum in the market is limited. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to increase this week. The futures prices of alumina and Shanghai aluminum maintained a volatile trend this week [24][27][34]. 3.6 Downstream Demand of Non - ferrous Metals - In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased year - on - year. From January to July, the new housing construction area decreased year - on - year, and the housing completion area also decreased. In June, the new photovoltaic installation volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [40][42][44]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendations - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price is volatile due to frequent news disturbances, and the position should not be too heavy. In the long term, the monthly output is still rising, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. For alumina and Shanghai aluminum, in the short term, alumina is in a weak volatile trend, and Shanghai aluminum is in a range - bound trend with a strategy of buying on dips. In the long term, when entering the downstream consumption peak season, if consumption recovers, Shanghai aluminum has upward momentum [45][46][49].