Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed a differentiated trend this week. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices increased, while soybean oil prices decreased. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased slightly. The market is waiting for the US policy on biodiesel exemptions for small refiners, which may affect oil prices [4][10][29] - In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9850 next week. In the long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with the center of gravity likely to rise, and the expected fluctuation range is 9300 - 10100 [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 9460 to 9592, with a weekly increase of 1.40%; the spot price rose from 9428 to 9570, with a weekly increase of 1.51% [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) rose from 9757 to 9890, with a weekly increase of 1.36%; the spot price rose from 9877 to 9985, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) fell from 8534 to 8458, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8608 to 8528, with a weekly decrease of 0.93% [4] Basis Changes of the Three Major Oils - As of August 21, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 74 yuan/ton (a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 116 yuan/ton (a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 50 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7] - As of August 22, 2025, the YP spread was - 1134 yuan/ton (a decrease of 208 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 10.45 tons (a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 61.73 tons (an increase of 1.75 tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.27 tons (an increase of 0.5 tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 186.45 tons (an increase of 1.7 tons from the previous week) [10] Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons [16] - In May 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 4.2% to 291.6 tons [16] Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the soybean inventory at national ports was 892.60 tons (a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 680.40 tons (a decrease of 30.16 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 2% from the previous week) [19] - As of August 22, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 566.30 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19] Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [22] - As of August 22, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2866.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22] Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 400 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 12800 tons. The POGO spread was 442.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 16.75 dollars/ton from the previous week) [28] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [28] Fundamental Analysis of the Three Major Oils - Policy: The market is waiting for the US to announce the exemption policy for small refiners related to biodiesel [29] - Foreign factors: The USDA monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons, the crude palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% from the previous month to 1.81 million tons, and the palm oil export volume in July increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons [29] - Import and crushing: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [29] - Inventory: As of August 15, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 10.45 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.73 tons, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 114.27 tons [29] - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed a differentiated trend this week. The spot price of palm oil increased by 1.51%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 1.10%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.93% [29] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil futures rose 1.40% this week. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and exports increased by 13 - 18%, with the export growth slowing down. Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% to 253 tons. The B50 plan is expected to be implemented, which will support future consumption in the producing areas. India has low inventory, and the pre - Diwali stocking period is expected to have significant import demand for oils, which still supports international palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the procurement of palm oil for September shipments is limited, and the demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [31]
三大油脂周度报告-20250822
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-22 10:59