原油周报：美国基本面数据坚韧，关注俄乌和平进程进展-20250822

Report Title Crude Oil Weekly Report Report Date August 22, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil remains under pressure from the large supply narrative in the medium to long term, but strong short - term data may alleviate market pessimism and potentially drive a limited - height rebound, especially considering potential changes in Russia - Ukraine talks. Additionally, pay attention to rumors about OPEC+'s future production policies [8]. - The core inflation being more stubborn and PPI rising significantly strengthen the view that the Fed's most - concerned core PCE data is unlikely to fall to 2% this year. The market's bet on a September rate cut has decreased, and the speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium is highly anticipated [25]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week, the large supply narrative in institutional reports strengthened the medium - to - long - term bearish view, and the US inflation data supported the expectation of stagflation. Short - term market focus was on the Trump - Putin meeting and potential cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico, which could provide better short - selling opportunities. - This week, oil prices weakened slightly at the beginning, then rebounded due to the positive EIA weekly report and re - evaluation of the peace talks. Fundamentally, diesel cracking stabilized and rebounded, but the large supply background pressured the crude oil monthly spread. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks had progress but still had core differences. The Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium was awaited, with the prediction that Powell would not give a clear guidance [8]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - Global Near - Month Spreads: Western market spreads of WTI and Brent were weak, indicating a slowdown in immediate supply - demand. Eastern market spreads were also weak after the contract rollover, and domestic SC crude oil entered the contango structure [10][12]. - US Cracking: Global cracking was generally stable, but US cracking strengthened, consistent with the EIA weekly report. Despite decent downstream demand, the larger supply release led to a weaker near - term spread [13][15]. - Crude Oil Fundamental Indicators: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals was neutral, and the forward - looking indicator was also neutral. Both had briefly and slightly touched the negative range recently [17]. - Global Spot Cracking: Global diesel cracking strengthened after an adjustment period. As the gasoline consumption peak ended and the diesel demand seasonal peak approached, diesel cracking would support the crude oil downstream [18][19]. - EIA Weekly Report: As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels. The EIA report implied strong demand, which could slightly correct the market's pessimistic expectations in the short term [21][23]. - Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks: There were core differences between Russia, Ukraine, and the US on territorial and security issues. If the talks fluctuated, the risk premium might return [24]. - US Macroeconomic Data: Core inflation and PPI trends strengthened the view that the core PCE would not fall to 2%. Market bets on a September rate cut decreased. The market was concerned about Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium [25]. - North American Hurricane Forecast: According to NOAA, this year's hurricane activity had a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it was calmer than last year. Currently, there were no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones were forecasted in the next 7 days [27][28]. 3.3 Price, Spread, and Cracking - Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices: Provided historical trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including Brent, WTI, Oman, and SC [32]. - Brent and WTI Positions: Showed the net long positions of different participants in Brent and WTI futures and options [34][36]. - Crude Oil Futures Structure and Monthly Spread: Presented the futures structure and monthly spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC [38][41]. - Cross - Market Futures and Spot Spreads: Displayed cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [44][47]. - Saudi OSP: The Saudi OSP for different grades of crude oil to various regions had different price adjustments in September compared to August [55]. - Refined Product Prices and Cracking: Showed the prices and cracking spreads of refined products in the futures and spot markets, including gasoline, diesel, etc. [59][67] 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Global Crude Oil Supply: Included the supply of non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ and the total global supply, with historical data and forecasts [80][81]. - Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply: Analyzed the supply of non - OPEC countries (such as the US, the former Soviet Union, China, and Brazil) and OPEC countries, including production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries [83][93]. - Global Rig Count: Showed the number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally [95][96]. - US Oil Rig and Refinery Shutdown: Included data on US oil rigs, well completion, and shutdowns of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions [97][102]. - Global Crude Oil Demand: Included the demand of OECD, non - OECD, and the total global demand, with historical data and forecasts [103][104]. - Crude Oil Inventory: Showed the inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, as well as the EIA balance sheet and its changes [112][135]. - OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage: Provided data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage [144]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - EIA Weekly Report Main Data: Not detailed in the provided content, only the section title was given [147].