沥青周报：边际略有好转-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: Asphalt demand was mainly driven by rigid needs. Although rainfall impact was expected to decrease next week, overall demand was difficult to exceed expectations due to capital constraints. Despite low refinery inventories, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventories might suppress market sentiment. Asphalt was expected to move in a volatile manner, weakly following the cost side [7]. - This week's market analysis: Asphalt prices fluctuated this week, showing a slight upward trend in the second half of the week, generally following the trend of crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: Both supply and demand of refineries decreased this week, with a more significant decline in production. Refinery inventories increased slightly, and social inventories, which had been difficult to destock, showed signs of loosening, indicating a marginal positive trend [7]. - This week's view: With an increase in short - term maintenance and a decrease in rainfall, asphalt conditions are expected to improve marginally. However, demand will still be restricted by capital. Asphalt is unlikely to have an independent market and will mainly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's view: Asphalt market was mainly driven by rigid demand. Next - week's rainfall impact was expected to decrease, but capital constraints limited demand growth. Low refinery inventories and non - destocking social inventories might suppress market sentiment. Asphalt was expected to be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's analysis: Asphalt prices fluctuated and rose slightly in the second half, following crude oil [7]. - This week's data: Refinery supply and demand both decreased, with a larger drop in production. Refinery inventories increased slightly, and social inventories showed signs of destocking [7]. - This week's view: Short - term maintenance increase and less rainfall will improve asphalt conditions marginally. However, capital constraints will still limit demand. Asphalt will follow the cost side [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis The report presents charts of asphalt futures prices, spreads between different contract months (e.g., BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong regions, sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply Charts show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand Graphs display asphalt shipment volumes, apparent consumption, paver sales, and related indicators over different time periods, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports Charts present asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and price differences between imported and domestic prices, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory Graphs show refinery inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts display operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in Shandong, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts show operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in East China, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts present operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in South China, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 Asphalt Plant Maintenance A table lists asphalt production enterprises, their maintenance devices, capacities, maintenance start times, and end times, with a total annual production capacity of 2116 tons/year and a maintenance loss of 648,400 tons [33].