白糖产业风险管理日报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment for expected production increases in India and Thailand's 25/26 sugar seasons is high, suppressing sugar prices. Brazil's overall sugarcane pressing situation is poor due to low precipitation, leading to a lower ATR value and an increased sugar - ethanol ratio. China's out - of - quota sugar import window has been fluctuating, resulting in a significant increase in July's import volume and an expected high volume in August [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market. Positive factors include strong domestic sugar sales in some regions, sufficient end - of - season sugar inventory in India for domestic consumption, suspension of imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder, poor production in Brazil's 25/26 season, and potential increased demand from the return of sugar - containing beverages in the US. Negative factors include increased sugar production in some regions, expected production growth in Brazil and Thailand, early monsoons in India, large import volumes in July and expected high volumes in August, and poor sales in some regions in July [5][8]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - Price Forecast: The monthly price range for sugar is predicted to be between 5600 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - Risk Management Strategies: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5800 - 5850 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell call options (SR511C5800) at 30 - 40 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5650 - 5700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SR511P5500) at 20 - 30 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Market expectations of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 seasons suppress sugar prices. Brazil's poor pressing situation due to low precipitation leads to low ATR values, and China's fluctuating import window causes large import volumes [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - As of the end of July, sugar sales in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year, with higher sales rates and lower industrial inventory in some cases. India's 2024/25 end - of - season sugar inventory is sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025. China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder. Brazil's 25/26 season production is poor, and there are potential demand increases from the return of sugar - containing beverages in the US [5][6][8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - In the 2024/25 season, sugar production increased in some regions. Analysts expect production growth in Brazil's 25/26 season and Thailand's 24/25 season. India's early monsoons may lead to a production recovery. July's import volume is large, and sales in some regions in July were poor [8][9]. 3.5 Price Data - Base Price Changes: On August 21, 2025, the base prices of sugar in different regions and contracts showed various daily and weekly changes [10]. - Futures Prices and Spreads: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of sugar futures contracts had different daily and weekly changes, and there were also changes in the spreads between different contracts [11]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: On August 22, 2025, sugar spot prices in different regions and the regional price spreads had specific daily and weekly changes [12]. - Sugar Import Price Changes: On August 22, 2025, the quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar had daily and weekly changes, as well as the price spreads compared to domestic prices [13].