聚酯板块周度报告-20250822

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: With South Korea cutting ethylene cracking capacity and unexpected shutdown of Huizhou PTA plants, the supply side is supported. As the peak consumption seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, demand is expected to improve, and the polyester sector is likely to perform strongly in the short term. Crude oil will still affect market volatility, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation [28]. - Medium - to - long - term: The demand outlook is improving, and the operating center of the polyester sector tends to move upward [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Information - Geopolitical factors: Trump mentioned the Russia - Ukraine issue, and there is uncertainty about the outcome and possible further sanctions on Russia. The US imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods due to India's oil imports from Russia, which may push up energy costs in relevant regions if India's oil procurement from Russia is restricted [4]. - Inventory data: As of the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.01 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.72 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 2.34 million barrels, with the decline in crude oil inventories exceeding market expectations [4]. 3.2 Industry Policy and News - South Korea: Ten South Korean petrochemical companies agreed to restructure their businesses, reducing annual naphtha cracking capacity by 2.7 - 3.7 million tons, which may mean a 25% reduction in the country's total capacity [5]. - China: There are rumors that China is planning a major reform in the petrochemical and refining industries, aiming to phase out small and outdated facilities and shift investment to advanced materials [5]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Price Data - Futures prices: From August 14 to 21, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, PX511, TA601, EG601, PF510, and PR511 showed different changes, with PX511 rising by 5.20%, TA601 by 4.16%, etc. [7]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of products such as naphtha, PX CFR (Taiwan Province), PTA, and ethylene glycol also changed, with naphtha rising by 2.36% and PX CFR (Taiwan Province) by 3.53% [7]. - Basis: The basis of various products also changed, for example, the PX basis decreased by 65.13% [7]. 3.4 Supply and Demand of Each Product - PX: After the restart of Weilian Chemical's plant, domestic PX supply increased this week. As of August 22, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 84.63% (+1.96 percentage points), and the weekly output was 70.98 tons (+2.37%). Asian PX supply also increased. Next week, due to ongoing maintenance of some plants, PX supply is expected to remain stable [11]. - PTA: Although a Hainan plant was under maintenance this week, new and restarted plants increased production, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. However, two Huizhou plants with a total capacity of 5 million tons shut down unexpectedly, and domestic supply is expected to decline significantly next week. PTA social inventory decreased slightly this week [15]. - Ethylene glycol: Domestic supply increased slightly this week, and port inventory decreased. As of August 21, the total inventory at East China ports was 49.78 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons from last Thursday. Due to ongoing maintenance of Middle East and Singapore plants, port inventory may continue to decline next week [16]. - Polyester: The weekly average polyester operating rate was 86.55%, a 0.20 - percentage - point increase. Polyester filament and short - fiber inventories continued to decline this week [17][20]. - Terminal: As of August 22, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 60.09% (+2.02), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 11.42 days (+3.08), and the坯布 inventory days were 28.21 days (-1.75), indicating a continuous improvement in the terminal market [26].