甲醇数据周度报告-20250822

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Data Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei, with qualification number F0269806 and investment consulting number Z0002796 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Methanol prices in both futures and spot markets, as well as its downstream products, mostly declined this week. The production margins of various methanol production processes have weakened, but coal - and natural - gas - based methanol still have considerable profits. Downstream demand is in the off - season, but profits are gradually recovering with the decline in methanol prices. The supply side is expected to increase production as more devices are planned to resume operation in late August. The demand side shows a slight improvement in MTO开工率, while traditional downstream industries have narrow fluctuations in their开工 rates. The port and inland markets are diverging, with the port likely to continue accumulating inventory, and the inland remaining in a low - inventory stage [9][10][21]. Group 4: Price Trends - Futures: The price of MA2601 decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%. The basis decreased by 23 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton, a decline of 26.44% [4]. - Spot: The price of methanol in Taicang decreased by 18.60 yuan/ton to 2359.6 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.78%. The CFR price of methanol decreased by 6.67 dollars/ton to 260.33 dollars/ton, a decline of 2.50% [4]. - Downstream: The prices of formaldehyde in Shandong decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1050 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19%. The price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2190 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged at 3400 yuan/ton. The price of MTBE in Shandong decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.91% [4]. Group 5: Cost and Profit - Production Margins: Affected by the previous decline in methanol prices, the production margins of various methanol production processes have weakened, but coal - and natural - gas - based methanol still have considerable profits [9]. - Downstream Profits: The downstream is still in the off - season, with narrow profit fluctuations. As the methanol price declined this period, the profits of downstream enterprises are gradually recovering [10]. Group 6: Supply Side - Production: As of August 21, this week's methanol production was 1.8974 million tons, a 1.83% increase from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 83.91%, a 1.51 - percentage - point increase [13]. - Device Status: This week, devices such as Shanxi Lubao, Baoji Changqing, and Hualu Hengsheng resumed operation, with a total restored capacity of about 2.3 million tons. Devices such as Hebei Jinshi, Yunnan Jiehua, and Guizhou Chitianhua were under maintenance, with a total lost capacity of about 700,000 tons. In late August, devices such as Yunnan Jiehua and Inner Mongolia Yigao are planned to resume operation, with a total restored capacity of 1.14 million tons, and the next - period operating rate may continue to rise [13]. Group 7: Demand Side - MTO开工率: The MTO开工率 increased slightly by 1.46 percentage points [16]. - Traditional Downstream: Traditional downstream industries had many maintenance activities, and their operating rates mainly fluctuated within a narrow range [21]. Group 8: Inventory - Port Inventory: As of August 20, the port inventory was 1.076 million tons, a 5.3% increase from the previous period. With no restart plan for coastal olefin devices, the port may continue to accumulate inventory [20]. - Inland Inventory: The inland inventory was 295,500 tons, a 0.64% increase from the previous period, but it is still in a low - inventory stage. Due to continuous external procurement by local olefin enterprises in the inland, the port and inland markets continue to diverge [20]. Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply and demand are loose, and it is more influenced by sentiment. Pay attention to the effective breakthrough of the neckline and the resumption progress of olefin devices next week [21]. - Medium - to - long - term: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at the port, and the fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the actual realization of the peak - season demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [21]. - Next Week's Focus: The recovery of coastal olefin devices, coal price fluctuations, and macro - market sentiment [21]