苹果产业风险管理日报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, with few trading points on the futures market. The opening price of early-maturing apples is higher than last year, and they are selling well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and not selling well. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly influenced by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. However, the quality of early-maturing apples is uneven, and there are concerns about potential issues with late-maturing Fuji apples [4]. - Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and unstable weather in production areas, which may lead to a significant reduction in production in the Northwest region [4]. - Bearish factors include a smaller-than-expected reduction in production based on bagging data and the impact of the peak season of seasonal fruits on apple sales, as well as weak consumer demand [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted price range for apples in the coming month is 7600 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past 3 years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - If worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 8300 - 8400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell call options (AP2510C8200) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 30 - 40 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the apple price rises [3]. Procurement Management - If worried about a decrease in old - crop apple inventory, a potential reduction in new - crop apples, and high purchase prices, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 8000 - 8050 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell put options (AP2510P8000) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 70 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the apple price falls [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On August 22, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, AP04, AP05, AP10, AP11, AP12) are provided, along with the prices and daily/weekly price changes of different grades of spot apples in various regions. The futures contract AP01 closed at 8018 with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.12%, while the spot price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.75 with a daily decrease of 1.32% and a weekly decrease of 1% [6]. Apple Inventory - On August 22, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 39.45 (with a weekly decrease of 6.56), and according to Zhuochuang was 40.42 (with a weekly decrease of 5.71). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc., also showed weekly decreases. In addition, the arrival volume of apples at several wholesale markets in Guangdong increased compared to the previous week [10].