镍、不锈钢：持续偏弱震荡，等待明确信号

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: Continued Weak and Volatile, Awaiting Clear Signals - August 22 Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was weakly volatile, mainly affected by the broader market. After the digestion of bullish sentiment at the macro - level, it experienced a correction, and there was no obvious change in the fundamental logic. Stainless steel also showed a weak trend, and the spot prices were adjusted downward. The industry was affected by the overall weakness of the broader market [5]. Key Points by Section Price and Volatility Forecast - Shanghai Nickel: The price range is predicted to be 11,800 - 12,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - Stainless Steel: The price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - Shanghai Nickel - Inventory Management: When the product sales price falls and inventory has impairment risk, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines (sell 60% of NI main contract); also sell call options (sell 50%) [3]. - Procurement Management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs; sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [3]. - Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: Similar to Shanghai nickel, short stainless steel futures according to inventory levels (sell 60% of SS main contract) and sell call options (sell 50%) when facing inventory impairment risk [4]. - Procurement Management: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [4]. Market Analysis - Core Contradictions - Shanghai nickel was affected by the broader market, with macro - level bullish sentiment digested and a correction. The Indonesian August second - phase benchmark price was slightly adjusted downward, and there was a rainfall forecast in some Philippine mining areas next week. Nickel iron remained firm, and the new energy link salt plants were relatively strong. Stainless steel was also weak, and the spot trading was cautious [5]. - Likely Positive Factors - Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula and shorten the nickel ore quota license period; the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand [7]. - Likely Negative Factors - Stainless steel entered the traditional off - season, with slow inventory reduction. Pure nickel inventory was high, and nickel ore seasonal inventory increased. There were still Sino - US tariff disturbances, and South Korea planned to impose anti - dumping duties on Chinese hot - rolled products [7]. Market Data - Nickel Disk Daily Data - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,830 yuan/ton, with no change; LME nickel 3M was 14,940 US dollars/ton, down 0.18% [7]. - The trading volume was 90,715 lots, and the open interest was 102,385 lots, both unchanged [7]. - The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 36 tons to 22,552 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 26.8% to - 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data - The latest price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,795 yuan/ton, with no change [8]. - The trading volume was 99,736 lots, and the open interest was 138,810 lots, both unchanged [8]. - The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 14.09% to 101,925 tons, and the basis of the main contract increased by 3.85% to 675 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory was 41,891 tons, an increase of 1,319 tons; LME nickel inventory was 209,598 tons, an increase of 252 tons [9]. - Stainless steel social inventory was 933.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons; nickel pig iron inventory was 33,111 tons, a decrease of 304 tons [9].