铜产业链周度报告-20250822

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoint The short - term copper price will continue to fluctuate, with support at 78,000 [49]. Summary by Directory 01 Report Summary The short - term copper price will maintain a volatile trend, and the lower support level is 78,000 [49]. 02 Multi - empty Focus - Positive Factors - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating strong economic resilience, which reduced the market's bet on consecutive Fed rate cuts. The new home starts in the US in July increased significantly, and the S&P confirmed the US sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook [9][11]. - China's domestic policies for stable growth are continuously being implemented, including measures to boost investment, promote consumption, and implement a moderately loose monetary policy [13][15]. - China's demand for copper is strong. The import volume of scrap copper in July increased more than expected due to strong domestic demand from both the recycled copper processing and cold - material smelting sectors. The power sector has high - speed growth, and the automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity, which will drive copper consumption [25][31][38]. - The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with the domestic TC quotation at a historical low, which is a strong support factor for the fundamentals [19][20]. - Negative Factors - The real - estate market's demand for copper is still weak. The real - estate development data from January to July shows a decline in various indicators such as construction area, new - start area, and completion area, and the housing prices in different - tier cities also show a downward or narrowing - decline trend [35][37]. - The production of household appliances such as refrigerators and air - conditioners has adjusted. The production of refrigerators in July decreased month - on - month, and the production of air - conditioners in July dropped sharply month - on - month due to the end of promotion activities and inventory pressure [41][42]. 03 Data Analysis - Supply Side - In July, China's copper ore imports increased. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.56 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.96% and a year - on - year increase of 18.45%. The supply from Chile and Peru rebounded [16][17]. - The production of refined copper in July decreased slightly. Affected by the shortage of cold - material supply, some smelters reduced production. The import volume of refined copper in July was 336,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 12.05% [22][24]. - Demand Side - The import volume of scrap copper in July was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73%. The demand from domestic recycled copper processing and cold - material smelting sectors is strong [25][26]. - The power sector has high - speed growth. The national grid investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, and the power grid investment from January to June increased by 14.6% year - on - year [31][33]. - The automobile industry maintains high - level prosperity. The production of new - energy vehicles in July was 1.176 million, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The total automobile sales are expected to increase in 2025, which will drive copper consumption [38][40]. - Inventory and Price - The inventory of copper exchanges has increased, while the domestic social inventory has decreased. As of August 21, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14,500 tons compared with August 18 [44][45]. - The domestic copper spot premium has decreased, and the foreign premium or discount has also decreased. On August 21, the premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot was about 115 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was about - 81.01 US dollars/ton [47]. 04后市研判 The short - term copper price will continue to fluctuate, with the lower support at 78,000 [49].