铝产业链周度报告-20250822

1. Report Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai aluminum market is expected to oscillate, with attention on the 20,500 support level of the 60 - day average line. The market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, domestic economic policies, and the supply - demand relationship in the aluminum industry [5]. - The traditional peak season is expected to drive marginal improvement in some sectors of the aluminum processing industry, but the overall terminal demand has not fully recovered [34]. - The profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain above 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, with limited growth in production and low inventory providing support [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The US economic data shows strong resilience, with the manufacturing PMI in August reaching the highest level since May 2022. The Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of tariffs on inflation are the focus of the market. The domestic economy is relatively stable, and the implementation of stable - growth policies continues [9][11][15]. - The domestic aluminum market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, policies, and international economic situation. The traditional peak season is expected to drive marginal improvement in demand, but the overall recovery is still weak [34]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The expected improvement in demand in the US manufacturing industry and the implementation of domestic stable - growth policies are expected to boost aluminum consumption. The low inventory of electrolytic aluminum also provides support for prices [9][15][31]. - Bearish factors: The expected oversupply of alumina, the weak downstream demand in the off - season, and the potential impact of the US steel and aluminum tariff increase on market sentiment [24][37][17]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Aluminum ore: In 2025, from January to July, the domestic aluminum ore production increased year - on - year. The import volume of bauxite from Guinea has been at a high level, but the rainy season in Guinea has affected the shipment volume. The supply of alumina is expected to be in surplus, and the production of electrolytic aluminum has limited growth space [19][23][25]. - Downstream demand: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly this week. The output of aluminum products in July decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. The automobile industry maintained high prosperity, while the real estate market continued to decline [34][37][41]. - Inventory: The inventory of LME aluminum remained stable, while the inventory of SHFE aluminum decreased this week. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly [47][50][61]. - Price: The domestic spot aluminum price changed from flat to premium, and the LME aluminum discount narrowed [52]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The Shanghai aluminum market is expected to oscillate, with attention on the 20,500 support level of the 60 - day average line. The market will continue to be affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, domestic economic policies, and the supply - demand relationship in the aluminum industry [66].