胶板印刷纸现货产业链和期货基础知识介绍

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of offset printing paper futures and options on September 10, 2025, will fill the gap in domestic cultural paper financial derivatives, providing tools for price risk management in the cultural paper industry chain, and promoting the sustainable development of the industry [4][5]. - The new products will help form a fair market price, improve spot pricing efficiency, and guide enterprises to optimize production plans, matching their risk - control needs and hedging goals [5]. - They will also contribute to the green development of the paper - making industry and enhance China's international pricing influence in the global cultural paper industry [147]. Summary by Directory 1. Product Introduction - Offset printing paper is typically made from bleached wood pulp, with characteristics such as low stretch, uniform ink absorption, good smoothness, and high water resistance. Most of it is double - sided offset printing paper (double - gum paper), accounting for over half of the domestic consumption of uncoated printing and writing paper and about 40% of domestic cultural paper consumption [10][11]. - Its production process includes a stock preparation stage and a paper - making stage. After a series of treatments and processes, the pulp is made into paper rolls or flat paper and then packaged [12]. - It is widely used in books, periodicals, commercial prints, and office supplies. Based on quantitative and brightness, it can be classified into different types [13][16]. - It has weak substitutability with writing paper, lightweight paper, and electrostatic copy paper due to differences in raw materials, performance, and demand scenarios, but strong substitutability with copperplate paper and lightly coated paper because of similar production processes, raw materials, and overlapping demand scenarios [17][18][21]. 2. Industry Chain Overview - Upstream: It highly depends on imported wood pulp, with a domestic self - sufficiency rate of less than 40%, and is significantly affected by international pulp futures, exchange rates, and shipping costs. The equipment technology has a high threshold, with key equipment relying on imports [28]. - Midstream: It is capital - and technology - intensive, with high investment thresholds. Production is regionally concentrated in East, South, and Central China, bringing cluster and logistics advantages. Future competition will focus on green and high - end products, and the production process has strict technical requirements and high environmental protection costs [31][33][34]. - Downstream: Demand is clearly differentiated among high - end, mid - end, and low - end markets. It has strong seasonal fluctuations, with peaks during the textbook printing season (Q2 - Q3) and commercial promotion season (Q4). The low - end market faces pressure from digital substitution [37][39]. 3. Supply and Demand Conditions - Price Influencing Factors - Raw Material Costs: Pulp price fluctuations, affected by international pulp prices, domestic pulp mill capacity, and Shanghai Futures Exchange pulp futures prices, directly impact the production cost of offset printing paper [42][43]. - Price Influencing Factors - Production Capacity and Output: In 2025, several companies have new production capacity plans. Over the past decade, the domestic output of double - gum paper has generally increased, with significant growth starting in 2021. China is the world's largest producer of double - gum paper, and production capacity is concentrated in East, South, and Central China [46][47][58]. - Price Influencing Factors - Inventory: In recent years, the inventory of double - gum paper producers has generally increased. In 2021, imports impacted the domestic market, and in 2024, over - supply led to a significant increase in inventory [60][61]. - Price Influencing Factors - Imports and Exports: From 2017 - 2024, China's double - gum paper trade was generally a net exporter, but there was a reversal in 2020 - 2021. The main import sources are Indonesia, Japan, and Russia, and exports cover over 170 countries and regions [63][67]. - Price Influencing Factors - Demand: Double - gum paper demand comes from various fields, with textbook demand being the most stable, having strong seasonality. China's double - gum paper consumption shows a slow and unstable growth trend, and the long - term demand may be affected by无纸化办公 and a declining birth rate [68][69][74]. 4. Spot Market Price - From 2020 to 2024, the domestic double - gum paper market experienced two significant price fluctuation cycles. The price was affected by factors such as demand changes, raw material costs, policies, and market supply - demand relationships. Currently, the price is in a low - level oscillation, and the industry has a strong demand for hedging tools [87]. 5. Futures and Options Introduction - Futures Contract: The trading unit is 40 tons per lot, with a minimum price change of 2 yuan/ton, a daily price limit of ±4%, and a trading time from 9:00 - 11:30 and 13:30 - 15:00. The delivery grade is double - gum paper with specific quantitative values, and the delivery method is physical delivery [91]. - Options Contract: The underlying is the offset printing paper futures contract. It includes call and put options, with a trading unit of 1 lot of the futures contract. The exercise style is American, and the trading time is similar to that of the futures contract [92]. - Other Trading Matters: The futures will be listed on September 10, 2025, with specific trading times, listed contracts, and trading rules. The options will be listed on the same day at 21:00, also with corresponding trading regulations [94][103]. 6. Delivery - Related Regulations and Processes - Fees and Standards: Delivery fees, warehouse and factory storage rents, and in - and out - of - warehouse fees are specified, with some fees waived until December 31, 2025, for non - high - frequency traders [122]. - Deliverable Goods and Enterprises: Deliverable offset printing paper must be a certified brand on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and specific enterprise information is provided [124]. - Delivery Warehouses and Premiums: Delivery warehouses are planned to be set up in major consumption and logistics areas, and delivery premiums are determined by the exchange [125]. - Inspection Institutions: Designated inspection institutions are to be announced by the exchange [126]. - Delivery Methods: They include futures - to - spot, warehouse delivery, and factory delivery, with specific regulations for each method, such as inspection requirements, quality dispute handling, and delivery time limits [134][143].