南华煤焦产业风险管理日报-20250822

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 22, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week, the macro sentiment cooled down. The speculative inventory of futures and cash entered in the early stage was partially unwound. Coupled with mine复产, near - month delivery game, and pressure on the apparent demand for finished products, the static fundamental of coking coal weakened marginally, and the spot price increase was weak. Looking forward, the details of the "anti - involution" policy need time to be introduced, and the macro sentiment may fluctuate. The long - term price trend of coking coal is relatively optimistic. It is recommended to buy coking coal 2601 contract on dips. To break through the previous high, a substantial reduction in coking coal supply or an unexpectedly positive policy is needed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - Coking coal price range (monthly): 1060 - 1350, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 32.68%, current volatility historical percentile: 63.87% - Coke price range (monthly): 1600 - 1800, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.37%, current volatility historical percentile: 49.13% [2] 3.2 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Variety | Unit | 2025 - 08 - 22 | 2025 - 08 - 21 | 2025 - 08 - 15 | Day - on - day | Week - on - week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 158633 | 137310 | 120312 | 21323 | 38321 | | Hot - rolled coil | Tons | 32215 | 33992 | 79286 | - 1777 | - 47071 | | Iron ore | Lots | 2000 | 2000 | 3100 | 0 | - 1100 | | Coking coal | Lots | 0 | 800 | 0 | - 800 | 0 | | Coke | Lots | 820 | 820 | 820 | 0 | 0 | | Ferrosilicon | Sheets | 20474 | 20202 | 20916 | 272 | - 442 | | Silicomanganese | Sheets | 70094 | 71820 | 74797 | - 1726 | - 4703 | [2] 3.3 Coal and Coking Futures Price and Basis - Coking coal: Multiple indicators such as warehouse receipt cost, basis, and inter - month spreads are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [9] - Coke: Similar to coking coal, multiple indicators including warehouse receipt cost, basis, and inter - month spreads are presented with corresponding changes [9] 3.4 Coal and Coking Spot Price - Coking coal: The spot prices of various types of coking coal, such as Anze low - sulfur coking coal, Mongolian coal, and imported coal, are shown, with some prices remaining unchanged and some having slight changes over different time periods [10] - Coke: The spot prices of different types of coke, including quasi - first - grade wet coke and dry coke in different regions, and export prices are provided. The current volatility of coke prices is relatively small, and the profit of coke export remains stable [10] 3.5利多 and 利空 Factors - Likely Positive Factors - The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines still exists, and the production increase space of mines in the second half of the year may be limited [8] - A safety accident in a mine in Fujian may cause market concerns about strong safety supervision [8] - Before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 10th Central Committee in October, there is room for policy expectation games [8] - Likely Negative Factors - The apparent demand for rebar is poor, and there is pressure on the real - end of finished products [8] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has restricted the position of the main coking coal contract, and the speculation degree of coking coal is expected to decline [8] - The 7 - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and it is more difficult to continue the price increase. The market may anticipate the peak of the price increase in advance [8]