南华期货焦煤焦炭周报：新驱动来了？-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the macro sentiment cooled down, some of the spot-futures speculative inventories entered the market earlier were unwound. Coupled with mine复产, near-month delivery game, and pressure on the apparent demand of finished products, the static fundamentals of coking coal weakened marginally, and the spot price increase was weak. The report is relatively optimistic about the medium and long-term price trend of coking coal, suggesting to buy the coking coal 2601 contract on dips. To break through the previous high, it is necessary to see a substantial reduction in coking coal supply or the introduction of unexpectedly positive policies. [6] - For coke, after seven consecutive rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved significantly. Recently, steel mill orders have declined and profits are under pressure, so they are resistant to the eighth round of price increase. The short-term negative factor for coke demand is the expected decline in molten iron production during the military parade, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of blast furnace steel mills after the military parade. [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Coking Coal: This week, the overall price of coking coal in the production areas fluctuated slightly, and the price of Mongolian coal at the port was slightly lowered. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Anze was quoted at 1470 - 1480 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port fluctuated around 950 yuan/ton. The coking coal market was mainly volatile this week, and the spread between the September and January contracts of coking coal strengthened. [4] - Coke: This week, the seventh round of price increase for coke was fully implemented. The cost of coal for coking remained stable, and the immediate coking profit continued to improve. The coking coal market was mainly volatile this week, and the spread between the September and January contracts of coking reinforced. [5] 3.2. Industry Performance - Coking Coal Supply: This week, more coal mines resumed production, and the output of mines increased. In terms of imports, the average daily clearance of Mongolian coal this week was 1,200 trucks, and the clearance level was relatively high. Some seaborne coal prices increased this week, and the theoretical import profit continued to narrow. However, with the arrival of previous import orders, the short-term supply of seaborne coal remained relatively loose. Overall, the resumption of coking coal mines and the inflow of imported coal led to a marginal oversupply of coking coal, and the inventory structure of coking coal weakened, which had a certain drag on the spot price. [4] - Coking Coal Demand: The coking profit improved marginally, the enthusiasm for starting work increased, and the normal raw material replenishment rhythm was maintained. This week, the market fluctuated slightly and weakened, some spot-futures inventories were unwound, and the speculative demand was relatively weak. [4] - Coke Supply: The seventh round of price increase for coke was fully implemented this week, the cost of coal for coking remained stable, and the immediate coking profit continued to improve. The enthusiasm of coking plants for starting work increased. Some coking plants in certain regions were affected by military parade production restrictions, and the short-term operating rate was expected to decline, resulting in a regional shortage of coke resources. [5] - Coke Demand: In the short term, the molten iron output remained at a high level, and the demand for coke was strong. Some steel mills in Tangshan announced blast furnace maintenance plans this week, and there was an expectation of a decline in molten iron output during the military parade, which was a short-term negative factor for coke demand. [5] 3.3. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Coking Coal: The report provides the weekly supply and demand balance sheet of coking coal from Week 18 (2025/5/2) to Week 34 (2025/8/22), including coking coal production, net imports, total supply, supply converted to theoretical molten iron, actual molten iron, explicit inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual molten iron. [8] - Coke: The report provides the weekly supply and demand balance sheet of coke from Week 18 (2025/5/2) to Week 34 (2025/8/22), including coke production, net exports, domestic total supply, supply converted to theoretical molten iron, actual molten iron, explicit inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual molten iron. [8] 3.4. Key News This Week - Macroeconomic News - Domestic: The 1-year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%. The State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing the need to continuously stimulate consumption potential and accelerate the cultivation and expansion of service consumption and new consumption. [12] - Macroeconomic News - Overseas: The Fed's Harker did not support a rate cut in September. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39-month high; the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 55.4, a 2-month low; and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 55.4, an 8-month high. [11] - Industry News: 45% of steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei plan to carry out maintenance in the short term, 32% have confirmed maintenance, and 23% will not carry out maintenance. The known daily average impact on molten iron output in Tangshan is about 41,800 tons, with a total molten iron output of 370,000 - 450,000 tons. The seventh round of price increase for coke has been fully implemented. Some coking plants in Shandong have further increased their production restrictions this week, and the overall operating rate of coking plants in Shandong is 79.56%. [14][15] 3.5. Data Overview - Supply and Inventory of Coking Coal: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 85.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.912 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 33,000 tons. The raw coal inventory was 4.716 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 15,000 tons. The daily average output of clean coal was 771,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 7,000 tons. The clean coal inventory was 2.756 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 180,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.46%. The daily output of clean coal was 257,000 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 7,000 tons. The clean coal inventory was 2.948 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 22,000 tons. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 4.5045 million tons, with an increase of 26,700 tons. [64] - Supply and Inventory of Coke: The capacity utilization rate of all independent coking plants was 74.42%, with an increase of 0.08%. The daily output of coke was 654,500 tons, with an increase of 700 tons. The coke inventory was 643,700 tons, with an increase of 18,600 tons. The total inventory of coking coal was 9.6641 million tons, with a decrease of 104,700 tons. The available days of coking coal were 11.1 days, with a decrease of 0.13 days. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 467,300 tons, remaining unchanged. The capacity utilization rate was 86.17%, remaining unchanged. The coke inventory was 6.0959 million tons, with a decrease of 2,100 tons. The available days of coke were 10.76 days, with a decrease of 0.07 days. The inventory of coking coal was 8.1231 million tons, with an increase of 65,100 tons. The available days of coking coal were 13.07 days, with an increase of 0.10 days. The inventory of pulverized coal injection was 4.2346 million tons, with an increase of 31,700 tons. The available days of pulverized coal injection were 12.29 days, with an increase of 0.05 days. The inventory of coke at 18 ports was 2.6862 million tons, with a decrease of 10,900 tons. [100] - Steel Production and Inventory: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.23 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.89 percentage points. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 5.95 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.86 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 63.64 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4075 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 162,900 tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 14.4104 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 250,700 tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.2383 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 13,000 tons, and the social inventory was 10.1721 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 263,700 tons. [129]