股指周报：持续上涨创年内新高，下周重点关注美联储降息预期及市场情绪变化-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current positive trend of the stock market is mainly driven by loose domestic and foreign liquidity, and the marginal changes in domestic and foreign liquidity affect the short - term trend of the stock index to some extent. The market is bullish on the Fed's September rate cut, but the Fed's July meeting minutes show internal differences, adding uncertainty to the September monetary policy. The speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the upcoming PCE price data will influence the rate - cut expectation and decision. The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend, but there may be an adjustment after a sharp rise [6][11]. - The stock index continued to rise this week, hitting a new high for the year. The main reasons are the better - than - expected semi - annual performance of A - share listed companies, especially the strong profitability of the manufacturing and technology sectors, and the drive from the sentiment and capital aspects [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Abstract - This week, the stock index continued to rise with increasing volume, and the four major stock indexes all hit new highs for the year. The turnover of the two markets rose to 2.5 trillion yuan. The main reasons for the sharp rise are the better - than - expected semi - annual performance of A - share listed companies and the drive from sentiment and capital [1]. - Before the release of non - farm payrolls data and PCE price data, Powell is expected to maintain a hawkish stance on inflation risks in his speech on Friday night, and the September rate - cut expectation will not change significantly. Next week, the stock index trend will be mainly affected by the capital and sentiment. There is no obvious negative factor currently, and if the previous performance disclosure situation continues, it can further support the stock index. However, some indicators show overheating, and the index may need adjustment after a sharp rise, but the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. 2. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - This week, the stock index continued to rise with increasing volume, and the four major stock indexes all hit new highs for the year. The turnover of the two markets rose to 2.5 trillion yuan. The reasons are the better - than - expected semi - annual performance of A - share listed companies and the drive from sentiment and capital [3]. - Next week's market trend needs to focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectation and market sentiment changes. The Fed's September rate - cut decision is uncertain. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the upcoming PCE price data will affect the rate - cut expectation and decision [6]. - In terms of market sentiment, the overall volume of the spot and futures markets increased. The basis of index futures fluctuated during the week and rose significantly on Friday. The PCR of option positions showed different trends. The performance of the dividend index was weak, indicating an increase in market risk appetite. Some indicators show overheating, and a subsequent correction should be vigilant [7]. - It is recommended to continue holding long positions and appropriately increase positions at low levels in case of adjustment [11]. 3. Weekly Fun Chart - This week, the RMB exchange rate changed little, fluctuated slightly weakly, and appreciated slightly [12]. - The basis of index futures fluctuated during the week and rose significantly on Friday [14]. - This week, the stock index style switched from the strength of small - and medium - cap stock indexes to the strength of large - cap stock indexes [16].