国投期货化工日报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined [1] - Methanol: Not clearly defined [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a balanced short - term trend and poor trading operability) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as supply disruptions, demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Grouped Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Downstream restocking is active, and supply - side news is positive, boosting prices [2] - Polyolefin futures have narrow fluctuations. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices oscillate around 6200 yuan/ton. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third quarter and potential pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Cost is weak, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state with potential inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PTA is driven by cost and shows a strong trend. Terminal weaving is improving, and PX supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rise to 4500 yuan/ton and then fall back. Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [5] - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable and cost - driven. New capacity is limited, and mid - term long - position allocation is considered [5] - Bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, limiting profit margin recovery [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices are weak. Import volume is slightly down, but port inventory may reach a high level at the end of the third quarter [6] - Urea prices fall after export news. Supply is loose in the short term, and the market is affected by sentiment and export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is poor, and export pressure is increasing [7] - Caustic soda is strong. Non - aluminum seasonal restocking and demand increase support prices, but long - term supply pressure remains [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rise. Supply may decline slightly, but inventory is high, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus [8] - Glass prices rise. Inventory accumulation slows down, and cost increases provide support [8]