国投期货软商品日报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ななな [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ななな [1] - Natural rubber: ななな [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber, and suggests a wait - and - see approach for most commodities due to different market uncertainties and conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton had a narrow - range oscillation, and the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remained stable with average spot trading. Pure cotton yarn trading was okay with generally stable prices [2] - The inventory digestion in July slowed down but is expected to improve in August as the peak season approaches. The tight inventory still supports prices [2] - In July, cotton imports were still low. 50,000 tons were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a 74.2% year - on - year decrease or 1.48 million tons [2] - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season with increased planting area and ideal weather. Short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of most inland enterprises. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. Due to insufficient precipitation, the sugarcane yield per unit area in Brazil decreased. As of the end of June, the cumulative yield per unit area of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 79.32 tons per hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 11.04%. The production progress was slow, leading to a significant year - on - year decrease in sugarcane and sugar production [3] - The proportion of sugarcane for sugar production increased year - on - year, and the sugar - alcohol ratio is at the upper edge of the historical oscillation range, so there is still some pressure above US sugar [3] - Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. In terms of production and sales, the sales rhythm this year is fast, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season [3] - The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure of domestic sugar. However, the output forecast for the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain. If there is insufficient rainfall later, it may lead to a reduction in production. Attention should be paid to subsequent weather conditions and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price oscillated. The price of early - maturing apples remained basically stable with high - quality goods having higher prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was good. For cold - storage apples, the remaining inventory was not much and the market demand was average [4] - As of August 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 461,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. Last week, the destocking volume of national cold - storage apples was 50,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.31% [4] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the new season. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and gales during the flowering period this year, the impact of low temperature on output is not large, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. On the other hand, the overall flower volume in the producing areas this year is sufficient, and there are still differences in the output estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all declined. The current price of domestic natural rubber decreased slightly, the current price of synthetic rubber was stable, the port price of external butadiene was stable, and the prices in the Thai raw material market showed mixed trends [6] - Globally, the supply of natural rubber is gradually entering the high - yield period. Most producing areas in Southeast Asia still have excessive rainfall. Attention should be paid to Typhoon No. 13, which is expected to pass by the southern part of Hainan Island. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded significantly. Yihua Rubber and Plastic, Qixiang Tengda, and Maoming Petrochemical have restarted, Xinjiang Land is under maintenance, and Dushanzi Petrochemical is operating at a low load. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants has declined again [6] - This week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires rebounded. The finished product inventory of tire enterprises continued to increase [6] - This week, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao announced by Longzhong continued to decline to 617,000 tons, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased while the general trade inventory continued to decline. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber announced by Zhuochuang rebounded to 121,000 tons. As imported goods arrive at ports one after another, the port inventory of upstream Chinese butadiene has continued to rise significantly to 273,000 tons. Overall, demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, natural rubber inventory has decreased, and synthetic rubber inventory has increased. Market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline today. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was stable at 5,450 yuan/ton, the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish increased by 50 yuan to 4,200 yuan/ton [7] - As of August 21, 2025, the sample inventory of the mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.132 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 33,000 tons from the previous period and a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [7] - The domestic social retail data in July weakened month - on - month, and the driving effect of trade - in programs weakened, indicating a decline in domestic demand. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the pulp demand is still average. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a range - oscillation trading strategy [7] Timber - The futures price oscillated. The mainstream spot price remained stable [8] - Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. The external price has been rising for two consecutive months, while the increase in domestic spot prices is small, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain low [8] - After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 600,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation is good [8] - As of August 15, the total inventory of logs at national ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%. The total log inventory is low with relatively small inventory pressure. Overall, the supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. It is recommended to wait and see [8]