黑色金属日报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by factors such as weak downstream demand, high iron - water production, and policy expectations. The short - term sentiment is weak, and the disk is under pressure. The market is expected to change with the implementation of policies and the shift of fundamentals [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The thread steel market shows a weak shock. This week, the apparent demand has rebounded, production has continued to decline, and inventory has continued to rise. The demand for hot - rolled coils has continued to improve, production has increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The market faces negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low. The downstream industry demand is weak, and the "anti - buying order" action has affected exports. The short - term disk is under pressure [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore disk is in a weak shock. The global shipment is strong, the domestic arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. Although the terminal demand is weak, the high iron - water production still supports the demand for iron ore, but there are expectations of production cuts around the parade. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the disk is expected to face greater downward pressure [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuates within the day. Due to the approaching major events, there are expectations of production restrictions in East China coking plants. The daily output of iron - water has increased, and the steel - making profit is at a high level. The seventh round of coking price increase has been fully implemented, and the inventory has increased slightly. The price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility and relatively small downward space [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuates within the day. The production of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot auction transactions have weakened, and the terminal inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory has increased, and the production - end inventory is likely to continue to increase in the short term. The price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy, with high short - term volatility and relatively small downward space [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price shows a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32 Australian mines. The demand is supported by high iron - water production. The weekly production has continued to increase, and the inventory has not increased. The manganese ore price has been slightly reduced this week, but due to the approaching major events, the price has limited downward space. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price is in a weak shock. The iron - water production has slightly decreased but remains above 240. The export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The supply has increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy and mainly follows the trend of silicomanganese [8]