国投期货农产品日报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil & Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply and demand, price trends, and policy impacts. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as considering buying at low prices for some products and being cautious about market uncertainties [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures contracts decreased with increasing positions. Short - term auction of domestic soybeans brought supply pressure, and weak demand depressed prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans rebounded from a low level. US soybean prices were strong despite high - record yields due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Short - term attention should be paid to weather, policies, and the performance of imported soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic futures market continued to decline with decreasing positions. Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern emerged due to biodiesel policies. In China, the supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a shortage in Q1 next year due to US tariff policies. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops. The relationship between US soybeans and domestic futures has weakened. If no trade agreement is reached by the end of this year, domestic soybean meal prices may rise. The medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybean prices were strong due to a decrease in area and lower ending stocks. Attention should be paid to the China - US soybean trade relationship. The US EPA's policy on small refineries may cause structural adjustments in biofuel demand. Indonesia's policies on palm oil may drive up prices. In the medium - term, overseas palm oil is in the production cycle. In the long - term, the development trend of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia remains. Investors can consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil price rose while the rapeseed meal price fell. The vegetable oil sector was boosted by the overnight overseas market. The demand for rapeseed oil in the biofuel fields of the US and the EU is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is tight, and futures prices may continue to rise [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures contract showed a short - term adjustment trend. The auction of imported corn by CGSGB had a low success rate. The supply in Shandong is relatively sufficient. The weather in domestic corn - producing areas is favorable, and new - season production may increase. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The government announced a central frozen - pork purchase and storage plan, which led to a higher opening of the futures market. The supply of live pigs in the second half of the year is expected to be high, and the spot price may continue to decline. The policy aims to promote industry capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet. Attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policies [8]. Eggs - Egg futures prices dropped rapidly in the past month due to over - capacity in the industry and weak prices during the peak season. The industry has been in losses for four months. If egg prices remain weak during the peak season, there may be a significant capacity reduction, which could support prices next year. Investors can consider buying at low prices [9].