HTSC·2025-08-22 12:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies Sunpower (阳光电源), Deye (德业股份), and Shangneng Electric (上能电气) [5][40][41]. Core Insights - The inverter export value in July 2025 was 6.51 billion yuan, showing a slight month-on-month decrease of 1.2%, while the export quantity was 4.6 million units, down 10.3% month-on-month. Despite this, demand remains high during the peak season, driven by power outages, rising electricity prices, and significant growth in wind and solar installations [8][39]. - The report highlights that the long-term demand for inverters is strongly supported by factors such as power outages, increasing electricity prices, and high growth in wind and solar installations. The parity of solar storage is expected to further unlock demand potential [39]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - In July 2025, exports to Europe reached 2.831 billion yuan, up 15.7% month-on-month and 28.1% year-on-year, driven by high electricity prices and increased demand for solar storage [11][39]. - Exports to Southeast Asia decreased to 385 million yuan, down 40.7% month-on-month, primarily due to typhoon impacts in the Philippines [21][39]. - Exports to Australia increased significantly by 64.4% month-on-month, reaching 388 million yuan, supported by a new subsidy policy for residential energy storage [36][39]. Regional Demand Insights - In Europe, the average wholesale electricity price rose to 84.8 euros/MWh, up 22.1% month-on-month, which is expected to boost solar storage demand [11][39]. - In India, the maintenance of a nuclear power plant is anticipated to tighten electricity supply, potentially leading to higher electricity prices and increased demand for solar storage [17][39]. - The Middle East shows a significant energy transition trend, with a notable project in Saudi Arabia expected to drive future inverter demand [24][39]. Company Recommendations - Sunpower (阳光电源) is projected to have strong earnings support due to high domestic and international order volumes, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of 92.80 yuan [41]. - Deye (德业股份) is expected to benefit from rapid growth in its energy storage business, with a target price of 129.15 yuan [42]. - Shangneng Electric (上能电气) is recognized for its expanding product range and potential contributions from overseas markets, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of 34.00 yuan [44].