兴业期货日度策略-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index Futures [1] - Cautiously Bearish: Treasury Bonds, Coking Coal, Coke [1][8] - Bearish: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Soda Ash, Float Glass, Crude Oil [5][8] - Sideways: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Methanol, Polyolefins, Cotton [4][6][9] - Cautiously Bullish: Silver, Rubber [4][9] 2. Core Views - Financial Futures: Ample liquidity and bullish sentiment remain. Hold existing long positions in the CSI 300 Index IF2509 [1]. - Commodity Futures: Caustic soda shows a strong trend, and an options strategy is recommended for polysilicon [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Index Futures: A-share market showed a pullback after a rise, with small-cap stocks underperforming. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 index futures rose, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures fell. The market's cautious sentiment increased, but the pattern of the index trending upward in a volatile manner remains unchanged. Hold long positions patiently [1]. - Treasury Bonds: The central bank has been conducting net injections. Policy support expectations still exist. The stock market's impact on the bond market is significant. Without new positive factors, the bond market may face upward pressure. Pay attention to the issuance of treasury bonds [1]. Commodity Futures Metals - Precious Metals - Gold: The price is oscillating within a high-range. The divergence on interest rate cuts within the Fed and between the Fed and the US government is large. Pay attention to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [4]. - Silver: The market focus is on the Fed's interest rate cuts. Hold short positions in out-of-the-money put options on the 10 - contract and long positions patiently [4]. - Base Metals - Copper: The price is oscillating. The macro - situation has uncertainties, and the supply - demand side has limited short - term driving forces. The long - term support from the tight supply of mines remains [4]. - Aluminum: The alumina price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The supply of Shanghai aluminum is constrained, and attention should be paid to the improvement in demand [4]. - Nickel: The fundamental situation is weak, but the low valuation and resource - country policies provide support. Pay attention to the support level of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan [4][6]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly production is at a high level, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is under pressure. Aggressive investors can hold light short positions and set dynamic stop - profits, while cautious investors can wait for the report on the verification of mine reserves in Yichun next month [6]. - Silicon Energy - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are both increasing, but the supply still appears to be in excess. The high inventory may limit the upside [6]. - Polysilicon: Terminal demand is weak, and the price support may decline. The futures price is expected to fall [6]. - Steel and Ore - Rebar: The anti - involution policy in the steel industry is unlikely to be implemented in the short term. The inventory is increasing passively. The price is expected to be weak. Hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options [6]. - Hot Rolled Coil: The supply pressure has increased, and the price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the actual situation of hot metal transfer [6]. - Iron Ore: The short - term 01 contract is expected to trade within the range of 750 - 810 [6][8]. - Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The supply is in a stage of relative relaxation, and the short - term price is under pressure. Pay attention to the subsequent spot checks by the Energy Bureau [8]. - Coke: Both supply and demand are affected by environmental protection control. The spot price increase has slowed down, and the futures price has weakened first [8]. - Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply exceeds demand. Hold existing short positions in the 01 contract [8]. - Float Glass: The industry is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season. The inventory accumulation has slowed down. Look for signals to take profits on short positions [8]. - Crude Oil: The price has stabilized. In the absence of further negative factors, close existing short positions in installments [8]. - Methanol: The price has rebounded. Future supply growth is the main resistance to price increases, but the possibility of a significant supply increase is low [9]. - Polyolefins: The price of polyethylene (PE) has decreased, while the price of polypropylene (PP) has increased slightly. The L - PP spread is expected to widen further [9]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. Wait for the peak demand season [9]. - Rubber: The tire enterprise's operating rate has increased, and the demand has been fulfilled steadily. The supply growth is slower than expected, and the fundamentals support the price [9].