GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-08-22 13:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [3][5]. Core Views - JD Group's revenue for Q2 2025 reached 356.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.4%. The revenue breakdown includes 310.1 billion yuan from JD Retail, 51.6 billion yuan from JD Logistics, and 13.9 billion yuan from new businesses, with respective growth rates of 20.6%, 16.6%, and 198.8% [1][2]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the electronics and daily necessities categories, with electronics revenue reaching 179 billion yuan (up 23.4%) and daily necessities revenue at 103.4 billion yuan (up 16.4%) [2]. - JD's food delivery business has expanded rapidly, covering 350 cities and attracting over 1.5 million restaurant partners, with a daily order volume of 25 million during Q2 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the synergy between JD's retail and food delivery businesses, which has led to increased cross-category consumption and significant growth in PLUS membership registrations [2][3]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 is 1,327.2 billion yuan, 1,435.8 billion yuan, and 1,575.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.5%, 8.2%, and 9.7% respectively [3][4]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to decline to 27.4 billion yuan in 2025, followed by recoveries to 37.4 billion yuan in 2026 and 50.6 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of -42.7%, 36.5%, and 35.3% [3][4]. - The report forecasts a non-GAAP net profit margin of approximately 2.1% for 2025, improving to 2.6% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [3][4]. Valuation - Based on a 10x P/E ratio for 2026 estimates, the report values JD Group at 374.3 billion yuan, translating to target prices of 35 USD and 137 HKD per share [3].