出口落地，尿素回归国内基本面

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that urea was fluctuating strongly due to export disturbances, while this week's view is that with exports finalized, urea has returned to the domestic fundamental situation [3] - Currently, the domestic supply of urea is abundant, with the daily average output rising to around 195,000 tons, the highest level in the same period. The overall demand is showing a downward trend, and the market sentiment is generally stable. In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited, and the market is mainly weak [3] - India has tendered for 2 million tons of urea again, with a tender closing date of September 2nd and a shipping date at the end of October. Under the background of relaxed domestic exports, it has a certain boost to the domestic market sentiment [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Overview: Market sentiment has been average since the weekend. The ex - factory quotes of urea in mainstream areas have risen, but the trading volume has been mediocre. The ex - factory quotes in Shandong have led the increase, and those in Henan have followed suit. The ex - factory prices in areas around the delivery area are weakly stable, and those in the Northeast are expected to decline. Overall, the short - term trend is weak, but the Indian tender provides some support [3] - Trading Strategies: For unilateral trading, focus on the bottom; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell put options on price declines [3] Chapter 2: Fundamental Data - Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 33rd week of 2025 (August 14 - 20), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%; that of gas - based urea was 75.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 78.13%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% [4] - Demand: In the 34th week of 2025 (August 15 - 21), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64 percentage points. As of August 22, the urea demand of compound fertilizer sample production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,190 tons, a week - on - week increase of 270 tons or 29.35%. As of August 20, the pre - order days of domestic urea enterprises were 6.06 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 days or 3.66% [4] - Inventory: As of August 20, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons or 6.95% from the previous week. The sample inventory at ports was 501,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons or 7.97% from the previous week [4] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal stopped rising and declined. The profit of fixed - bed production was 140 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 200 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 430 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 40 yuan/ton [4]