鸡蛋周报：需求不及预期，蛋价偏弱运行-20250822

Report Title - Weekly Egg Report: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Egg Prices Weakly Operate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing challenges with demand falling short of expectations, leading to a weak operation of egg prices. Supply-side pressure is evident, and the market is affected by factors such as inventory and consumer sentiment [1][5][10] Summary by Directory First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.04 yuan per catty, with little change from last Friday, while the average price in the main selling areas was 3.39 yuan per catty, showing a slight increase. The price increase in the main producing areas was hindered. The price of culled chickens continued to decline this week [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From August 15 - 21, the national main producing areas' egg chicken culling volume was 16.76 million, a 16% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 500 days, a 6 - day decrease from the previous week. In July, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, a 0.016 - billion increase from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The monthly hatching volume of egg chicken chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of August 21, the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,602 yuan per ton, and the feed cost per catty of eggs was about 2.83 yuan. As of August 21, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.08 yuan, a 0.18 - yuan increase from the previous week. On August 15, the expected profit of egg chicken farming was 10.46 yuan per bird, a 1.46 - yuan decrease from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of August 21, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7,439 tons, a 2% decrease from the previous week. The inventory in the production and circulation links showed a mixed trend, with the production - link inventory increasing by 0.1 days to 1.02 days and the circulation - link inventory increasing by 0.13 days to 1.16 days. The vegetable price index slightly rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [16] 5. Trading Strategies - The supply - side pressure is still obvious. If there is no large - scale over - culling in the short term, the short - selling logic can be established. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices, including unilateral short - selling, shorting near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and longing far - month contracts after the Spring Festival, and selling put options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Inventory - Data on the in - laying hen inventory, brooding chicken replenishment, culling situation, and chick hatching volume are presented in charts, but specific updated data in this section are not described in text [21][22][23] 2. Cold - Storage Eggs - Not provided with specific text description 3. Egg Chicken Farming Situation - Data on the culling age of culled chickens and the average price of egg chicken chicks in the main producing areas are presented in charts, but specific updated data in this section are not described in text [26] 4. Spread and Basis - Data on 1 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread, etc. are presented in charts, but specific updated data in this section are not described in text [29][30][31]