2025年7月财政数据点评：税收端改善，狭义支出提速

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal data in July continued to show a warming trend. The improvement on the tax side led to a slight acceleration in narrow - fiscal spending, while broad - fiscal spending maintained resilience supported by special bonds for bank capital injection and ultra - long - term special bonds. Based on the current progress, it is estimated that the fiscal strength in the second half of the year can achieve a smooth continuation, and the probability of supplementing fiscal funds through additional bond issuance within the year is low [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Revenue Situation - In July 2025, the national general budget revenue increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with significant tax contribution. Tax revenue increased by 5.0% year - on - year, 4 percentage points higher than the previous value, while non - tax revenue decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with negative growth for three consecutive months and an expanding decline. The total general budget revenue from January to July increased by 0.1% year - on - year, reaching the annual budget target and completing about 62% of the annual budget, faster than the same period last year. In July, central fiscal revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and local fiscal revenue increased by 3.1% year - on - year [1][2]. - In terms of tax structure, major tax items generally showed high year - on - year growth. Personal income tax and consumption tax increased by 13.9% and 5.4% respectively in July, with their cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July being 8.8% and 2.1%. Corporate income tax increased by 6.4% year - on - year in July. VAT increased by 4.3% year - on - year in July, showing a slight decline but overall remaining stable. Most real - estate - related taxes saw a decline in growth, while securities trading stamp duty increased significantly by 125.4% year - on - year in July [3][4]. General Budget Expenditure - In July, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.0% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points higher than the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July was 3.4%, 1 percentage point away from the annual target. The main driving force for expenditure was on the livelihood front, such as social security and employment, health, and education, while infrastructure - related expenditure remained in the negative range, and science - related expenditure turned negative [4]. Government - Fund Revenue - In July, national government - fund revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, with a marginal slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year decline from January to July further narrowed to 0.7%, and the annual budget target is 0.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed to 4.6%. The government - fund revenue in the first half of the year completed about 37% of the annual progress, significantly faster than the same period last year [6]. Government - Fund Expenditure - In July, national government - fund expenditure increased by 42.4% year - on - year, still at a high level although it declined compared to the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 31.7%, above the annual budget target of 23.1%. The budget completion progress of government - fund expenditure for the whole year was about 43%, faster than the same period in previous years. The combined broad - fiscal deficit of the two accounts in the first seven months reached 5.6 trillion, 1.8 trillion higher than the same period last year [7]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The first - account target is expected to be achieved, while the second - account may have a small gap. Assuming the annual growth rate of the second - account revenue is around - 5%, there may be a revenue gap of about 300 - 50 billion by the end of the year. However, government - fund revenue and expenditure are not rigid requirements, and the expected 500 - billion - yuan policy - based financial instruments can basically offset the gap [8].