棉系周报：需求变化不大，棉价震荡为主-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the demand for cotton has not changed significantly, and cotton prices are expected to be mainly volatile. In the international market, US cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner, while in the domestic market, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend [1][8][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: There are no obvious changes in the macro - aspect. Fundamentally, the current good - to - excellent rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, so the US cotton trend is expected to be mainly volatile [8]. - US Cotton Growth: As of August 17, the budding rate of US cotton was 97%, the boll - setting rate was 73%, the boll - opening rate was 13%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 55%. The growth progress was relatively slow, but the good - to - excellent rate was higher than the historical average [8]. - US Cotton Sales: As of the week ending August 14, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 24,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56%; the weekly shipment volume was 28,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14% [8]. - CFTC Position: As of August 15, the number of unsold contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract increased by 525 to 21,948, and the total number of unsold contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 876 to 44,381, equivalent to 1.01 million tons [8]. - Brazil: According to CONAB's August report, the total cotton output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.935 million tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous month [8]. - India: From August 14 to 20, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas in India was 108.2 mm, higher than the normal level and the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall during the rainy season was about 11% higher [8]. - Global Situation: According to the latest USDA August forecast, the global cotton output in August was 25.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons; the total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; the ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Analysis - Supply Side: As of mid - August, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 1.8202 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. The sales volume has increased, and the weekly inventory shows a downward trend [25]. - Demand Side: It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of mid - August, the industrial inventory of cotton in cotton textile enterprises was 924,200 tons, and the yarn and fabric inventories were 27.23 days and 35.14 days respectively. The weekly data shows that the operating rate of spinning mills has increased slightly [25]. - Comprehensive Outlook: In the short term, the impact of the macro - level is expected to weaken. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still relatively tight, and the demand is expected to improve in August. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend [25]. 3.3 Option Trading Strategy - Volatility Judgment: The 120 - day HV was 10.2496 yesterday, and the volatility increased slightly compared with the previous day [39]. - Option Strategy Recommendation: Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7867, and the trading volume PCR was 0.6430. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The recommendation is to sell put options [39]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: The short - term impact of tariffs may weaken. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is tight, and the demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger but with limited upward space [41]. - Specific Strategies: Unilateral trading: It is expected that the US cotton will move in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [43]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - Mid - end Situation: Information on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, full - cotton fabric load, yarn inventory days, and fabric inventory days is presented through historical data charts [50]. - Cotton Inventory: Data on national commercial cotton inventory, industrial inventory of spinning mills, and reserve inventory over the years are provided [52]. - Spot - Futures Basis: Information on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US cotton and the basis between cotton yarn C32S spot and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn is presented [55].