市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and short - term market sentiment was volatile. The factors driving price increases have weakened, and the market may shift to a rapid decline in terminal steel demand. Short - term iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate. The trading strategy suggests high - level hedging for spot in the unilateral trading, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Market Situation: This week, iron ore prices fluctuated narrowly, and short - term market sentiment was volatile. The factors driving price increases have weakened, and the market may shift to a rapid decline in terminal steel demand [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading: mainly fluctuate, with high - level hedging for spot; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - Global and Regional Shipments: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly week - on - week. In 2025 so far, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 30.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% (7 million tons). Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% (7.3 million tons), and Brazil's were 7.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% (10.7 million tons). Last week, the shipments of mainstream mines increased significantly week - on - week, and in the past month, they have continuously contributed year - on - year increments. However, there was a differentiation within mainstream mines, with Australia basically flat year - on - year and Brazil continuing high - growth [8][10]. - Non - mainstream Mines: In 2025 so far, the weekly average of non - Australia and non - Brazil mines' shipments was 5.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% (3.6 million tons). Australia's non - mainstream weekly shipments averaged 2.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7% (7.3 million tons), and Brazil's non - mainstream shipments averaged 2.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% (8.2 million tons). Non - mainstream mine shipments started to improve in June and continued high - growth from July to August, and are expected to continue to contribute certain increments [19]. - Inventory: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased slightly week - on - week, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the iron ore inventory in steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week, resulting in a slight week - on - week decline in the total inventory of imported iron ore in China. In the past month, the total inventory of imported iron ore was basically flat, and the total inventory of terminal steel products increased continuously week - on - week, leading to a slight increase in the total domestic iron element inventory. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore have weakened slightly [27]. Demand Side - Domestic Demand: In the third quarter of 2025 so far, domestic hot metal production increased by 2.6% (3.5 million tons) year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 3% (4.7 million tons) year - on - year. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 6.4% (4.2 million tons) year - on - year, and the non - building materials apparent demand increased by 0.8% (0.6 million tons) year - on - year. The domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) decreased by 2.6% (3.6 million tons) year - on - year. Recently, the domestic terminal steel inventory has been increasing continuously week - on - week. Compared with the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak, and the demand for manufacturing steel decreased rapidly week - on - week, suppressing the current terminal steel demand [33]. - Overseas Demand: In the first half of the year, overseas iron element consumption increased by 1.8% year - on - year, among which India's crude steel production increased by 9.2% year - on - year. The demand for crude steel overseas remained at a relatively high level, and it is expected that India's steel demand will continue to contribute a large increment in the third quarter [33].