港口继续，甲醇偏弱态势

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The methanol market shows a weak trend. The coal mine start - up rate initially declined and then recovered, with demand weakening and pit - mouth prices falling. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant, with high and stable start - up rates. Import expectations for September are raised to 1.4 billion tons, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory. Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season, while MTO device start - up rates have rebounded. Overall, with increasing supply, shorting on rallies is the main strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Analysis of coal situation: The coal mine start - up rate in Ordos and Yulin regions has recovered, and the daily coal output in these two regions is around 4 million tons. Coal demand has weakened, and pit - mouth prices have stopped rising and started to fall. Although coal prices have rebounded recently, the methanol auction prices in the inland are firm, and coal - to - methanol profits are stable at a high level [5]. - Supply analysis: The price of raw coal has stopped rising, and the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate is stable at a high level. The import volume is expected to increase, with the September import forecast raised to 1.4 million tons, and ports are accumulating inventory [5]. - Demand analysis: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season with a decline in start - up rates, while the MTO device start - up rate has rebounded. Some MTO devices have different operating conditions, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device being shut down [5]. - Inventory analysis: Import arrivals have increased, port inventory accumulation has accelerated, and the basis is weakly stable. Inland enterprise inventory has fluctuated within a narrow range [5]. - Trading strategies: For unilateral trading, short on rallies without chasing short positions; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [5]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply data: As of August 21, the overall domestic methanol device start - up load was 73.01%, up 0.38 percentage points from last week. The international methanol (excluding China) output in the cycle (20250809 - 20250815) was 1,045,457 tons, with a device capacity utilization rate of 71.67%, unchanged from last week. The Chinese methanol sample arrival volume in the cycle was 328,900 tons [6]. - Demand data: As of August 21, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.79%, unchanged from last week. The national olefin device start - up rate was 85.7%. The capacity utilization rates of traditional downstream industries such as dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde have changed to varying degrees [6]. - Inventory data: As of August 20, the total port inventory was 1.076 million tons, an increase of 54,200 tons from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 310,800 tons, an increase of 15,200 tons from the previous period [6]. - Valuation data: In the profit aspect, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi regions is around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 230 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 0 yuan/ton. MTO losses have narrowed, and the basis has weakened [6]. - Spot price: The price in Taicang is 2,290 yuan (- 20), and the price in the northern line is 2,060 yuan (- 20) [9].