2025JacksonHole鲍威尔发言点评：美联储9月降息共识或已基本达成

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve consensus on a September interest rate cut appears to be largely reached, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction[3] - Powell's speech highlighted the dual risks of a declining labor market and rising inflation, indicating a need for policy adjustment[2] - The labor market is showing signs of increased layoffs and rising unemployment rates, while tariffs are contributing to inflationary pressures[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed's monetary policy framework is being adjusted to return to a flexible inflation targeting regime, balancing monetary policy goals[4] - The removal of the "effective lower bound" statement aligns with current high inflation characteristics, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach[4] - The Fed will act based on economic outlook and risk balance, maintaining a long-term inflation target of 2%[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's dovish remarks, the market is expected to experience a short-term boost in risk sentiment, with positive reactions in U.S. equities[5] - The likelihood of two rate cuts in 2025 is anticipated, but caution remains due to the delayed effects of tariffs on inflation[5] - Market indicators showed significant gains in U.S. stocks, a decline in bond yields, and an increase in gold prices following the speech[5]