鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议的演讲点评：JH会议：打开降息的大门

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22 is an important signal of his shift to a dovish stance [1][7]. - Although Powell did not explicitly state whether there would be a rate cut in September, he repeatedly hinted at a willingness to join the "rate - cut camp", and the overall stance is dovish [2][8]. - The probability of a 25bp rate cut in September has reached around 90%, but it still needs the final push. Whether the rate cut will happen depends on the upcoming non - farm payrolls and CPI data [4][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.暗示愿意转向"降息阵营" (Signaling a Willingness to Join the "Rate - Cut Camp") - Powell expressed concerns about the labor market, stating that the downward risks in the employment market are rising [2][8]. - He pointed out that economic growth has significantly slowed down, with the GDP growth rate in the first half of this year at only 1.2%, a significant slowdown compared to 2024, mainly due to the slowdown in consumer spending [8]. - Powell believed that the impact of tariffs on prices is a "one - time change" and the possibility of a wage - price spiral is small [2][8]. - He indicated that "shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance", which means he has started to consider adjusting the policy rate [2][9]. - The market interpreted Powell's speech as a signal of his shift to the dovish camp. The yield of US Treasury bonds declined significantly, and the expectation of a rate cut in September rose from around 75% to near 90%. The yields of 2Y and 10Y US Treasury bonds decreased by 11bp and 7bp respectively, and the three major US stock indexes rose collectively [2][9]. 3.2.货币政策框架的调整 (Adjustment of the Monetary Policy Framework) - Powell announced the abandonment of the "average inflation target" policy implemented in 2020 and the return to a flexible inflation - targeting framework [3][16]. - The wording of "effective lower bound" (ELB) was removed to simplify the communication on high - inflation response measures [3][16]. - The wording related to "shortfalls" of the full - employment target was removed to address communication challenges [3][17]. - Some other wording modifications were made to clarify communication [3][17]. 3.3.美联储降息还差"临门一脚" (The Fed's Rate Cut is One Step Away) - In August, there were still obvious differences in the stances of Fed officials. Hawks included Schmid, Mussalem, Bostic, and Harker; doves included Waller and Bowman [4][19]. - The probability of a 25bp rate cut in September has reached around 90%, but it depends on the non - farm payrolls and CPI data to be released before the September 17 FOMC meeting. If the August non - farm payrolls are unexpectedly strong (e.g., over 200,000) or the August CPI data rises unexpectedly (e.g., the CPI month - on - month growth rate exceeds 0.5%), the rate cut in September may not happen, but the probability is currently small [4][20]. - Once the rate cut is implemented, it is expected that the prices of US stocks and bonds will rise in the short term, while in the medium - to - long term, it is necessary to observe whether tariffs will lead to a "stagflation" scenario [4][20].